Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals
Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-019-01719-9
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Yoshitake, Shinpei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagai, Shin;Saitoh, Taku M.;Yoshitake, Shinpei
在日本，樱花是重要的旅游资源，并提供许多文化生态系统服务效益。在未来变暖的条件下，我们将需要做出调整，例如改变花卉节的时间，以适应开花物候的变化。在这项研究中，我们评估了过去、最近和未来气候条件下两个日本城市樱花开花物候与相关节日期间的一致性。我们研究了新日高和高山的情况，新日高的花祭时间每年都会变化，高山的祭典时间固定为与神社每年的春节一致。目前，新日高（DOY）126和130的平均开始开花日期（索引树中超过四朵或五朵花开放；BBCH60）和盛开（等于或超过索引树中花朵开放的80%；BBCH65之后）的平均日期晚于国庆长假黄金周（DOY 119至125）。高山的相应日期（分别为 DOY 106 和 111）晚于当地节日期间（DOY 104 和 105）。在升温1.0~2.0℃的情况下，新日高的盛花期将恰逢黄金周，而在升温1.0~1.5℃的情况下，高山的盛开期将与春节期间重合。因此，适度变暖可能会增加樱花对旅游业的价值。然而，如果新日高气温上升超过3.5摄氏度，高山气温上升超过2.5摄氏度，樱花在黄金周和春节期间将分别落花，这表明进一步变暖可能会降低这一旅游资源的价值。
In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 degrees C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 degrees C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 degrees C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.