Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z
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发表时间：
2019-02-07
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Whitlock, Carolyn E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bhatia, Kieran T.;Vecchi, Gabriel A.;Whitlock, Carolyn E.
迅速增强的热带气旋通常与最高的预报误差有关，并造成不成比例的人员和经济损失。因此，了解是否以及为什么观察到热带气旋增强率呈上升趋势是至关重要的。本文利用两个观测数据集计算了1982-2009年的24小时风速变化。我们将观测到的趋势与自然变率进行了偏差校正、高分辨率、全球耦合模式实验的比较，这些实验精确地模拟了热带气旋增强的气候分布。观测到的两个数据集都显示大西洋盆地热带气旋增强率显著增加，与基于模式的内部气候变化估计相比，这是非常不寻常的。我们的研究结果表明，在人为强迫的积极贡献下，大西洋强化率可探测到的增加，并表明在发现全球范围内的强劲趋势之前需要更可靠的数据。
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.