Managing the risk of price spikes, dependences and contagion effects in australian electricity markets

管理澳大利亚电力市场的价格飙升、依赖性和蔓延效应的风险

• 批准号: DP1096326
• 负责人: Prof Stefan Trueck
• 金额: $ 11.8万
• 依托单位: Macquarie University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2010-01-01 至 2013-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP1096326
• 关键词: Managing; risk; price; spikes; dependences

Australian electricity markets are more volatile and spike-prone than other comparable markets. Price spikes account for large parts of total price variation, and companies that are unprepared to manage these risks adequately face potentially substantial losses. The economic reality of price spikes in our interconnected electricity markets which are small and geographically isolated, unlike the proximate markets of Europe and North America, emphasises the imperative of this Australian-focused research. Results will enable forecasting of extreme prices and enable market participants to manage better their risks, in Australia's unique electricity environment, and reduce chances of large losses or default.

澳大利亚电力市场比其他可比市场更不稳定，更容易出现尖峰。价格飙升占总价格变化的很大一部分，没有准备好充分管理这些风险的公司可能面临巨大损失。与欧洲和北美的邻近市场不同，我们相互关联的电力市场规模小，地理位置孤立，价格飙升的经济现实强调了这项以澳大利亚为重点的研究的必要性。研究结果将有助于预测极端价格，并使市场参与者能够在澳大利亚独特的电力环境中更好地管理风险，并减少巨额损失或违约的可能性。