Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment

澳大利亚的经济在很大程度上依赖大宗商品出口。然而，最近大宗商品价格的波动给这些商品的贸易商、生产商和消费者带来了巨大的不确定性。这通过破坏农业和矿业生产对我国国民经济产生不利影响，并对投资、就业和国内总收入产生更广泛的影响。这项研究将更准确地模拟初级商品价格及其市场间联系的复杂动态，从而使贸易商、生产者和消费者能够更好地预测商品价格变动，并通过库存管理、套期保值和长期生产计划来保护自己。

Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.