Presidential Young Investigator Award: Improved Methods of Forcasting Construction Cost and Schedule Performance

这项研究的目的是开发一种或几种更好的方法来预测建设项目绩效。它的目的是通过三个独立但协调的研究--两个调查成本预测和另一个进度预测-来实现这一点。其中一项成本研究和进度研究将探索如何将计算机科学中基于知识的专家系统概念应用于这些预测问题。将研究预测成本绩效的定量方法，而不是启发式方法。在未来几年，将对建设项目绩效的其他方面进行调查，如质量、安全和组织问题，但成本和时间是这次初步调查的两个关键问题。

The goal of this research is to develop a better way, or ways, to forecast construction project performance. It is intended to accomplish this by three separate, but coordinated research studies--two investigating cost forecasting and the other schedule forecasting. One of the cost studies and the schedule study will explore ways of applying knowledge-based expert system concepts from computer science to these forecasting problems. Quantitative, as opposed to heuristic, methods of forecasting cost performance will be investigated. In future years, other aspects of construction project performance such as quality, safety, and organizational issues will be investigated, but cost and time are the crucial two issues for this initial investigation.