INTER- AND INTRA-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN AN INTERACTIVE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE CLIMATE SYSTEM

该项目将在一个相互作用的海洋-大气系统中调查地球的气候变异性，该系统由一个包括混合层海洋部分的低水平分辨率的大气环流模式模拟。重点将放在年度周期的年度间和年内变化方面。非常长的模式模拟(在50年至100年的范围内)将提供有关变率事件的实质性统计表示。分析将侧重于评估(1)SST变率特征，(2)大气环流异常与SST异常之间的关系，以及(3)海洋-大气能量交换在强迫变率中的作用。其他模拟，包括规定的海面温度或大气条件的情况，将有助于确定SST和大气变异性之间的因果关系。在超过几周的时间尺度上，海洋强烈地影响着地球的气候。研究导致这种影响的过程和大气对海洋的反馈的一个富有成效的方法是交互模型。预计这项研究将(1)有助于理解热力海洋-大气相互作用在产生热带和温带气候变异性方面的作用，(2)有助于评估和解释包含内部海洋过程和动态海洋-大气相互作用的更复杂的系统，以及(3)洞察气候变化的基本方面，如海洋和大气之间的可预测性和因果关系。这项研究与世界气候研究计划的热带海洋-全球大气计划(TOGA)有关。

This project will investigate the earth's climate variability in an interactive ocean-atmosphere system as modeled by a low-horizontal-resolution general circulation model that includes a mixed-layer ocean component. The focus will be on the inter- and intra-annual variability aspects of the annual cycle. Very long model simulations (in the range of 50 to 100 years) will provide substantive statistical representations of the relevant variability events. Analyses will focus on assessing (1) SST variability characteristics, (2) the relationship between atmospheric circulation anomalies and SST anomalies and (3) the role of ocean-atmosphere energy exchange in forcing variability. Additional simulations which include cases with prescribed sea surface temperature or atmospheric conditions will help in determining cause/effect relationships between SST and atmospheric variability. On time scales beyond a few weeks, the oceans strongly influence the earth's climate. A productive approach to studying the processes leading to that influence and the feedback to the oceans by the atmosphere is interactive models. It is expected that the study will (1) provide understanding of the role of thermodynamical ocean-atmosphere interactions in producing tropical and extratropical variability of climate, (2) help in the assessment and interpretation of more complex systems which incorporate internal ocean processes and dynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions, and (3) provide insight into fundamental aspects of climate variability such as predictability and cause/effect relationships between the ocean and the atmosphere. This research is relevant to the World Climate Research Program's Tropical Oceans-Global Atmosphere Program (TOGA).