The Active Minority: Collaborative Research on PresidentialSelection and the Political Parties

这项研究的重点是将参加1988年总统提名和大选活动的“活跃的少数”公民。调查人员感兴趣的是解释参与者对候选人的支持的因素，以及他们在大会前的竞选活动与他们在秋季竞选中为本党提名人工作的意愿之间的关系。项目的设计特别认识到过程的动态特征，并允许在整个运动中监测不断变化的态度和行为。在之前的研究基础上，调查人员将检验对候选人支持率的解释，其中包括活动人士对每位候选人赢得本党提名的可能性的判断、该候选人在秋季与反对党的竞争机会、活动人士的议题和意识形态偏好，以及候选人的个人特征。评估这些因素的相对重要性对于理解提名竞选对美国政党健康的影响至关重要。例如，那些在选择候选人时强调问题和意识形态利益的活动人士，会在大会前的竞选活动中造成分裂，如果他们喜欢的候选人没有获得提名，他们就不太可能在秋季为共和党工作。相比之下，更关心提名获胜者的活动人士可能更有可能在秋季的竞选活动中发挥作用，即使该党未能提名他们喜欢的候选人。研究设计包括对爱荷华州、密歇根州和弗吉尼亚州这三个州的活动人士进行调查。这些州之所以被选中，是因为它们政治文化的多样性，而且在提名竞选期间，这些州将在不同的时间举行选区预选会议。此外，调查人员从1984年竞选期间进行的调查中获得了这些州的数据。调查人员将与1984年的结果进行比较，并重新联系1984年的受访者，以便在1988年的竞选中跟踪他们。调查人员将在1988年期间三次联系1984名参加预选会议的人：第一次是在1月，第二次是在初选季节之后的6月，但在夏季全国代表大会之前，最后一次是在11月大选之后。为了便于与1984年党团会议参加者的数据进行比较，他们还将抽取1988年各州两党党团会议参加者的新样本。这些受访者将被联系两次：一次是在他们所在州的预选会议之后，另一次是在秋季选举之后。最后，调查人员将对这三个州的州和地方政党领导人进行抽样调查，他们将与所在州的党团会议与会者在同一时间取得联系。目的是收集那些或多或少长期活跃于各州政党的人的数据，以便评估各州政党组织与总统选举过程之间的关系。

This research focuses on the "active minority" of citizens who will participate in the presidential nomination and general election campaigns of 1988. The investigators are interested in the factors that explain participants' support for candidates as well as the relationship between their activity in the preconvention campaigns and their willingness to work for their party's nominee in the fall campaign. The design of the project specifically recognizes the dynamic character of the process and permits monitoring of changing attitudes and behavior throughout the campaign. Based on their prior research, the investigators will test an explanation of candidate support that includes activists' judgments about how likely each candidate is to win his or her party's nomination, the candidate's chances against the opposition party in the fall, the issue and ideological preferences of the activist, and the personal characteristics of the contenders. Assessing the relative importance of these factors is crucial to understanding the implications of nomination campaigns for the health of the American political parties. For example, activists who emphasize issues and ideology interests in choosing a candidate contribute to the divisiveness of the preconvention campaign and may be less likely to work for the party in the fall should their preferred candidate not receive the nomination. Activists more concerned with nominating a winner, in contrast, may be more likely to work in the fall campaign even if the party fails to nominate their preferred candidate. The research design involves surveys of activists in three states: Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia. These states were selected due to their diversity in political culture, and because precinct caucuses will be held in them at different times during the nomination campaign. Moreover, the investigators have data from these same states from surveys they conducted during the 1984 campaign. The investigators will draw comparisons with their results from 1984 as well as re-contacting the 1984 respondents in order to follow them through the 1988 campaign. The investigators will contact their 1984 samples of caucus-attenders three times during 1988: first in January, then in June after the primary season but before the summer conventions, and finally just after the November election. In order to facilitate comparisons with their 1984 data on caucus-attenders, they will also draw new samples of 1988 caucus-attenders in both parties in each state. These respondents will be contacted twice: once immediately after the caucuses in their state, and again following the fall election. Finally, the investigators will survey samples of state and local party leaders in the three states, who will be contacted at exactly the same times as the caucus attenders in their states. The goal is to collect data on those who are more or less permanently active in the state parties in order to assess the relationship between the state party organizations and the presidential selection process.