Studies of the Optimal Use and Economic Value of Weather andClimate Information

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The overall objective of this research is to investigate the optimal use and economic value of weather and climate information. Static and dynamic models of decision-making situations that are sensitive to weather and/or climate information, together with appropriate economic, models, will be used to study these use/value issues. The research focuses on the formulation, analysis, and application of such models, and on the evaluation of the use and value of various types of meteorological information - and the assessment of quality/value relationships for such information - in particular decision- making problems. Specific objectives of the research relates to important extensions of previous work including: (a) formulation and application of decision-making models in situations involving the simultaneous consideration of short-term and long-term strategies and/or short-term and long-term strategies and/or short range and long-range information; (b) the analysis of the effects of decision makers' risk preferences on the use and value of meteorological information; and (c) the development and application of methods of obtaining market level estimates of the overall value of such information to producers and consumers. Both prototype and real-world applications will be examined. This project is important because it should provide more realistic models of weather/climate sensitive decision-making situations, more credible results concerning the use and value of meteorological information, and more reliable characterizations of quality/value relationships for such information.