Studies of the Optimal Use and Economic Value of Weather andClimate Information

天气和气候信息的优化利用和经济价值研究

• 批准号: 8714108
• 负责人: Allan Murphy
• 金额: $ 35.52万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-10-15 至 1991-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8714108&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Studies; Optimal; Use; Economic; Value

The overall objective of this research is to investigate the optimal use and economic value of weather and climate information. Static and dynamic models of decision-making situations that are sensitive to weather and/or climate information, together with appropriate economic, models, will be used to study these use/value issues. The research focuses on the formulation, analysis, and application of such models, and on the evaluation of the use and value of various types of meteorological information - and the assessment of quality/value relationships for such information - in particular decision- making problems. Specific objectives of the research relates to important extensions of previous work including: (a) formulation and application of decision-making models in situations involving the simultaneous consideration of short-term and long-term strategies and/or short-term and long-term strategies and/or short range and long-range information; (b) the analysis of the effects of decision makers' risk preferences on the use and value of meteorological information; and (c) the development and application of methods of obtaining market level estimates of the overall value of such information to producers and consumers. Both prototype and real-world applications will be examined. This project is important because it should provide more realistic models of weather/climate sensitive decision-making situations, more credible results concerning the use and value of meteorological information, and more reliable characterizations of quality/value relationships for such information.

本研究的总体目标是探讨天气和气候信息的最佳利用和经济价值。对天气和/或气候信息敏感的决策情况的静态和动态模型，连同适当的经济模型，将用于研究这些使用/价值问题。研究的重点是这些模型的制定、分析和应用，以及对各种气象信息的使用和价值的评价，以及对这些信息的质量/价值关系的评价，特别是决策问题。研究的具体目标涉及以往工作的重要延伸，包括：(a)在涉及同时考虑短期和长期战略和/或短期和长期战略和/或短期和长期信息的情况下制定和应用决策模型；(b)决策者的风险偏好对气象信息使用和价值的影响分析；(c)制定和应用获取对生产者和消费者的这种信息的总体价值的市场估计的方法。原型和现实世界的应用将被检查。这个项目很重要，因为它应该提供对天气/气候敏感的决策情况的更现实的模型，关于气象信息的使用和价值的更可信的结果，以及这些信息的质量/价值关系的更可靠的特征。