Design Principles for Computer Assisted Multiattribute Preference Modelling and Assessment: A Behavioral Approach

这项拟议的研究有两个基本目标：(1)更多地了解人们如何做出复杂的决策；(2)开发和测试旨在提高此类决策质量的基于计算机的决策支持系统。这项研究考虑了两个使决策变得困难的因素。第一个是不确定每个决定替代方案的后果是什么，特别是在存在重大损失风险的情况下。第二个是存在多个相互冲突的目标，从而迫使决策者在目标之间进行权衡。提出了两种类型的研究活动。它包括实验室和实地研究，旨在更多地了解直觉决策策略以及这些策略的潜在偏见和其他缺点。这样的研究很重要，因为它允许预测直觉决策过程可能导致的潜在偏差或错误。其次，计算机软件的设计将提高涉及风险和目标冲突的决策的质量。这种基于计算机的决策支持系统很重要，因为它们可以显著改善商业、政府、医学和工程领域的决策过程。它们甚至可能有助于消费者做出涉及重大财务或健康结果的复杂决定。

The proposed research has two basic objectives: (1) to learn more about how people make complex decisions, and (2) to develop and test computer-based decision support systems that are intended to improve the quality of such decisions. The research considers two factors that make decisions difficult. The first is uncertainty about what the consequences of each decision alternative will be, especially in cases where there is the risk of a substantial loss. The second is the presence of multiple objectives that conflict with one another, thus forcing decision makers to make tradeoffs among objectives. Two types of research activities are proposed. It involves laboratory and field studies designed to learn more about intuitive decision making strategies and the potential biases and other shortcomings of these strategies. Such research is important because it allows the anticipation potential biases or errors that may result from intuitive decision making processes. Second, computer software will be designed to improve the quality of decisions involving risk and conflicting objectives. Such computer-based decision support systems are important because they may significantly improve decision making processes in business, government, medicine, and engineering. They may even be helpful to consumers making complex decisions involving substantial financial or health outcomes.