A Holocene history of rainfall extremes for the South Pacific

该项目旨在生成南半球有史以来最长的极端降雨量记录(11700年)，用于更新概率重现间隔，并告知全球变暖的未来风险。我们将使用石笋的替代数据，将古气候方法应用于极端事件的科学研究，以研究全新世期间的自然降雨变异性。结合全球气候模式对全新世三个主要气候事件的模拟，我们将确定暴雨事件长期变化的机制。该项目将为澳大利亚和太平洋岛屿在预测和准备应对我们在2022年经历的洪水方面带来重大好处。

The project aims to generate the longest ever record of rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (11,700 years) that will be used to update probabilistic recurrence intervals and inform future risks in a warming world. We will apply a palaeoclimate approach to the science of extreme events by using proxy data from stalagmites to investigate natural rainfall variability during the Holocene. Combined with state of the art Global Climate Model simulations for three major climate events of the Holocene, we will identify mechanisms of long term shifts in heavy rainfall events. The project will provide significant benefits for Australia and the Pacific islands in terms of prediction and preparedness for deluges like we experienced in 2022.