A Holocene history of rainfall extremes for the South Pacific

南太平洋全新世极端降雨历史

• 批准号: DP230101868
• 负责人: Dr Danielle Verdon-Kidd
• 金额: $ 31.59万
• 依托单位: The University of Newcastle
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP230101868
• 关键词: Holocene; history; rainfall; extremes; South

The project aims to generate the longest ever record of rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (11,700 years) that will be used to update probabilistic recurrence intervals and inform future risks in a warming world. We will apply a palaeoclimate approach to the science of extreme events by using proxy data from stalagmites to investigate natural rainfall variability during the Holocene. Combined with state of the art Global Climate Model simulations for three major climate events of the Holocene, we will identify mechanisms of long term shifts in heavy rainfall events. The project will provide significant benefits for Australia and the Pacific islands in terms of prediction and preparedness for deluges like we experienced in 2022.

该项目旨在生成南半球有史以来最长的极端降雨记录（11，700年），用于更新概率重复间隔，并告知未来变暖世界的风险。我们将利用石笋的代用资料，探讨全新世自然降雨量的变化，将古气候方法应用于极端事件的科学研究。结合全球气候模式对全新世三大气候事件的模拟，我们将确定暴雨事件长期变化的机制。该项目将为澳大利亚和太平洋岛屿在预测和准备洪水方面提供重大利益，就像我们在2022年经历的那样。