Economic Natural Selection

这个项目调查了优化行为的演变， 一类金融资产市场。 进化的来源是 市场中的“经济自然选择”和适应 个人投资者。 选择动力学是 财富在投资者之间流动，而适应则来自于 个人投资者的学习和搜索。 不像大多数 关于市场演变的文献，本项目研究 个人在金融资产市场的行为，而不是 企业的行为。 除了对进化的研究结果外， 合理性（即，市场并不总是选择那些 是最接近优化的人，或者是最正确的人， 根据初步调查结果， 市场过程中的规律性。 的 研究人员利用这种规律性来描述长期的 运行行为的资产价格在金融市场和探讨 学习的影响，进入和退出，搜索，和其他 经济创新的源泉。 这是一个非常重要的研究方向。 的假设 个体表现得好像他们是理性的（接近优化）， 企业利润最大化是基于以下自然 选择参数 市场力量惩罚非优化交易者 和信息不灵通的交易者， 优化，更好地了解和更好地猜测交易者。 在 从长远来看，这些交易员将主导市场。 模型 市场理性在金融经济学中有着广泛的应用。 这些研究人员的初步工作表明， 选择过程可能不会收敛于理性预期 均衡，市场中存在显著的波动， 即使市场从长远来看是无效的， 可提供更丰富、更准确的概念 研究金融市场动态的框架。

This project investigates the evolution of optimizing behavior in a class of financial asset markets. The sources of evolution are "economic natural selection" in the marketplace and adaptation by individual investors. Selection dynamics are a consequence of wealth flows between investors, while adaptation arises from learning and search by individual investors. Unlike much of the literature on evolution in markets, this project studies individuals' behavior in financial asset markets rather than the behavior of firms. In addition to findings on the evolution of rationality (i.e., markets do not always select the traders who are most nearly optimizers or who have the most correct information), the preliminary investigations have discovered a great deal of regularity in the market process. The investigators exploit this regularity to characterize the long run behavior of asset prices in financial markets and to explore the effects of learning, entry and exit, search, and other sources of economic innovation. This is a very important line of research. The assumption that individuals behave as if they were rational (near optimizing) or that firms maximize profits is based on the following natural selection argument. Market forces punish non-optimizing traders and poorly informed traders by redistributing to the more nearly optimizing, better informed and better guessing traders. In the long run, these traders come to dominate the market. Models of market rationality are widely used in financial economics. Preliminary work by these investigators suggests that the natural selection process might not converge on a rational expectations equilibrium, that there are significant regularities in markets even when the market is not efficient in the long run, and these regularities can provide a richer and more accurate conceptual framework for studying the dynamics of financial markets.