Market Uncertainty and Government Policy

这个项目继续研究市场不确定性，即经济本身产生的不确定性。特别是，该项目从不同的模型分析了太阳黑子平衡的稳定性(1)面对更一般的彩票装置和(2)面对合作个人形成联盟的可能性。这项研究工作的初始阶段将是对拥有不可分割商品的经济体进行随机均衡分析的结果。该项目还继续分析政府税收政策在资源跨期分配中的作用，包括它们在存在市场不确定性的经济体中的作用。经济参与者必须在面临不确定性的情况下做出决定。这种不确定性的部分原因是对经济基本面的不确定性--品味、天赋、生产可能性，甚至政府政策。传统的一般经济均衡理论成功地模拟了这种不确定性。这个项目解决了个人实际面临的另一个重要的不确定性来源。这是市场不确定性、经济本身产生的不确定性、在给定基本参数的情况下对经济结果(如价格、净贸易、就业和通货膨胀率)的不确定性。例如，商人们想知道消费者的信心是高是低，信贷是松是紧，美元是强是弱，等等。市场不确定性是一个具有明显社会重要性的话题。例如，宏观经济学家问，政府应该采取什么政策来抵消经济本身造成的干扰。当我们设计组织--或者更一般地选择机制--我们应该想知道这些新的组织形式是如何创造和传递不确定性的。这个项目通过扩展市场不确定性的正式模型，即研究者首创的所谓的“太阳黑子均衡”模型，有助于我们对这种不确定性的理解。

This project continues research on market uncertainty, the uncertainty generated by the economy itself. In particular, the project analyzes the stability of sunspot equilibria from various models (1) in the face of more general lottery devices and (2) in the face of the possibility of the formation of coalitions of cooperating individuals. The initial phase of this research effort will be an outgrowth of the analysis of stochastic equilibria in economies with indivisible commodities. The project also continues the analysis of the role of government tax policies in the intertemporal allocation of resources, including their role in economies in which there is market uncertainty. Economic actors must make decision in face of uncertainty. Some of this uncertainty is the result of uncertainty about economic fundamentals-- tastes, endowments, production possibilities, and even government policies. This type of uncertainty is successfully modelled by conventional general economic equilibrium theory. This project addressed another, significant source of uncertainty which individuals actually face. This is market uncertainty, uncertainty generated within the economy itself, uncertainty about the economic outcomes (such as prices, net trades, employment, and the inflation rate) given the fundamental parameters. Businessmen, for example, wonder whether consumers' confidence will be high or low, whether credit will be loose or tight, whether the dollar will be strong or weak, and so forth. Market uncertainty is a subject of obvious social importance. Macroeconomists, for example, ask what policies should the government take to counteract disturbances generated by the economy itself. When we design organizations -- or, more generally choose mechanisms -- we shall want to know how uncertainty is created and transmitted by these new organizational forms. This project contributes to our understanding of this type of uncertainty by extending formal models of market uncertainty, i.e., the so-called "sunspot equilibrium" models pioneered by the investigator.