Theoretical Studies of Cold Air Damming

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Persistent, stable and shallow domes of cold air dammed to the west by the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachian mountains are a common mesoscale feature in the late fall and winter. Because of the neighboring, much warmer Atlantic waters to the east, this cold air damming is a major factor in distinguishing forecasts of rain from those of the more dangerous frozen precipitation forms (snow, sleet, freezing drizzle and rain). When it is present and persistent it also favors the rapid genesis and intensification of coastal winter storms. Unfortunately, inadequate resolution of the observational, analysis and forecast systems, as well as a lack of theoretical understanding, have caused poor forecasts of these events. Similar phenomena also occur along Colorado's Front Range, affecting the distribution of heavy snow in the Denver-Fort Collins urban corridor, and have been documented on other mountain slopes around the world. Xu's goal is to improve our understanding of cold air damming and to develop quantitative criteria for the diagnosis and short term forecasting of its consequences. He is an outstanding younger investigator and is recognized as one of the leading group of theoretical hydrodynamicists considering concrete weather forecasting problems.