Research Initiation: Capacity Expansion and Replacement in an Uncertain Dynamic Technological Environment

这项研究的目标是开发模型，在进行收购和更换决策时考虑未来创新的可能性。特别是，这项研究的重点是产能扩张和更换模式，在这种模式下，预计会有一系列技术突破，但其规模和时间不确定。在这样的环境中运营的公司必须决定购买多少当前最好的可用技术来满足未来的需求增长。它还必须确定是否部分或完全替换任何较旧的年份，并将重点放在过时而不是变质上，作为替换的动机。这样的决定在电子和其他以快速技术变化为特征的行业中是至关重要的。这项研究还考虑了快速变化的市场中产品生命周期和制造灵活性之间的相互作用。这项工作的动机是对汽车装配柔性装配线的投资决策进行经济分析。未来几代产品的出现导致专用传送线的过时。另一方面，柔性生产线可以加工连续几代的产品。柔性装配线所需的高额投资与这类生产线减少的过时程度进行了权衡。

The objective of this research is to develop models which consider the possibility of future innovations while taking acquisition and replacement decisions. In particular, the research focuses on a capacity expansion and replacement model wherein a sequence of technological breakthroughs are anticipated but their magnitude and timing are uncertain. A firm, operating in such an environment, must decide how much capacity of the current best available technology to acquire to meet the future demand growth. It must also determine whether to replace any of the older vintages partially or completely, with the focus on obsolescence rather than deterioration as the motive for replacement. Such decisions are of the essence in electronics and other industries characterized by rapid technological change. This research also considers the interaction between product life cycles and manufacturing flexibility in a rapidly changing market. This work is motivated by the economic analysis of investment decisions in flexible assembly lines for automobile assembly. The advent of future generations of products lead to obsolescence of dedicate transfer lines. Flexible lines, on the other hand, can process successive generations of product. The high investment required in flexible assembly line is weighed against the reduced obsolescence of such lines.