Software for Habitat Based Metapopulation Viability Analysis

[9260109] Akcakaya该项目的主要目标是开发一种软件，该软件将地理信息系统（GIS）与种群模型结合起来，GIS可以分析和预测物种栖息地结构的变化，而种群模型可以估计利用栖息地的物种的灭绝风险。该软件将为环境影响评估和保护生物活动提供现实的估计。这种估计很重要的领域包括评估人类活动对濒危和受威胁物种命运的影响，例如林业实践、道路建设、农业扩张和水坝建设；自然保护区的优化设计（选择栖息地，使特定物种的生存机会最大化）；以及野生动物管理实践的最佳选择（如重新引入和迁移）。这项研究将包括开发算法，以生成、输出和解释栖息地地图，预测由于土地利用模式变化而对特定物种的栖息地的未来适宜性的程序，以及为生活在多个随时间变化的斑块中的物种建立种群模型的软件，例如在破碎的栖息地中。＊＊＊

9260109 Akcakaya The main goal of this project is to produce software that will combine a geographic information system (GIS), which analyzes and predicts changes in the structure of a species' habitat, with a population model that estimates the extinction risk of the species that utilizes the habitat. The software will enable realistic estimates for the purposes of environmental impact assessment and conservation biology activities. Examples of areas where such estimates are important include assessment of the impact of human activities, such as forestry practices, road building, agricultural expansion, and dam construction, on the fate of endangered and threatened species; optimum design of nature reserves (the selection of habitats that will maximize the survival chance of a particular species); and the optimal choice of wildlife management practices (such as reintroductions and translocations). The research will involve development of algorithms to produce, export and interpret habitat maps, programs to predict future suitability of habitats for particular species due to changes in land-use patterns, and software for building population models for species that live in multiple patches that change through time, such as in fragmented habitats. ***