Software for Habitat Based Metapopulation Viability Analysis

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9260109 Akcakaya The main goal of this project is to produce software that will combine a geographic information system (GIS), which analyzes and predicts changes in the structure of a species' habitat, with a population model that estimates the extinction risk of the species that utilizes the habitat. The software will enable realistic estimates for the purposes of environmental impact assessment and conservation biology activities. Examples of areas where such estimates are important include assessment of the impact of human activities, such as forestry practices, road building, agricultural expansion, and dam construction, on the fate of endangered and threatened species; optimum design of nature reserves (the selection of habitats that will maximize the survival chance of a particular species); and the optimal choice of wildlife management practices (such as reintroductions and translocations). The research will involve development of algorithms to produce, export and interpret habitat maps, programs to predict future suitability of habitats for particular species due to changes in land-use patterns, and software for building population models for species that live in multiple patches that change through time, such as in fragmented habitats. ***