Some Deleterious Consequences of Alternative Hypothesis Neglect

PI们建议调查一种明显普遍的现象，即人们一次只能接受一种假设。PIs将研究这一认知限制的一些含义。首先，PI将研究“伪诊断性”，它被定义为搜索关于一个假说的更多信息，而不是以与贝叶斯定理一致的方式收集关于竞争对手假说的信息。PIS将利用“信息板”方法来评估参与者的信息收集行为。其次，PI将在执行协方差估计任务时调查参与者的信息选择，在该任务中，参与者试图评估两个变量之间的关系。第三，将调查基本费率疏忽。最后，将考察复杂假设检验环境中的数据选择。

The PIs propose to investigate the apparently ubiquitous phenomenon that people are able to entertain only one hypothesis at a time. The PIs will examine a number of implications of this cognitive limitation. First, the PIs will study "pseudodiagnosticity," defined as the search for more information about one hypothesis as opposed to gathering information about rival hypotheses in a manner congruent with Bayes Theorem. The PIs will utilize the "information board" methodology to assess participants' information gathering behavior. Second, the PIs will investigate participants' information selection while performing a covariation estimation task in which participants attempt to assess the relation between two variables. Third, base rate neglect will be investigated. Finally, data selection in a complex hypothesis testing environment will be examined.