Some Deleterious Consequences of Alternative Hypothesis Neglect

PI建议调查一种明显普遍存在的现象，即人们一次只能接受一种假设。 PI将检查这种认知限制的一些含义。 首先，PI将研究“伪诊断性”，定义为搜索关于一个假设的更多信息，而不是以符合贝叶斯定理的方式收集关于竞争假设的信息。 PI将使用“信息板”方法来评估参与者的信息收集行为。 第二，PI将调查参与者的信息选择，同时执行协变估计任务，参与者试图评估两个变量之间的关系。 第三，将调查忽视基本费率的情况。 最后，在一个复杂的假设检验环境中的数据选择将被检查。

The PIs propose to investigate the apparently ubiquitous phenomenon that people are able to entertain only one hypothesis at a time. The PIs will examine a number of implications of this cognitive limitation. First, the PIs will study "pseudodiagnosticity," defined as the search for more information about one hypothesis as opposed to gathering information about rival hypotheses in a manner congruent with Bayes Theorem. The PIs will utilize the "information board" methodology to assess participants' information gathering behavior. Second, the PIs will investigate participants' information selection while performing a covariation estimation task in which participants attempt to assess the relation between two variables. Third, base rate neglect will be investigated. Finally, data selection in a complex hypothesis testing environment will be examined.