Anticipating ecological shifts in subtropical marine ecosystems

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This project aims to unravel the causes of abrupt ecological change in the subtropics and predict their future in warming seas. Uniting large-scale field observation and modelling in a novel multi-species framework, this project seeks to quantify how warming and species interactions combine to escalate change on subtropical reefs at different stages of tropicalisation. Expected outcomes include new insights into the factors that promote stability or change along subtropical coasts in Australia and Japan, where the influx of tropical species already has dramatic consequences. By comparing dynamics in Australia with tropicalisation hotspots in Japan, this project expects to anticipate future ecological shifts and benefit strategic management.