Assessment of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Fields in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis and Forecast Products

与对流活动有关的潜热释放是驱动大气环流的大气加热的一个重要来源。由于云极大地减少了地球向外发射的长波辐射（OLR），因此，至少在热带地区，可以使用卫星衍生的OLR场来识别强烈对流活动和大气加热的区域。虽然热带对流和全球环流型态之间的关系已在观测研究中确立，但由于缺乏可与观测相比较的模式衍生的OLR场，对模拟这种联系的全球模式有效性的评估受到了阻碍。作为国家环境预测中心（NCEP）正在进行的再分析项目的一部分，大气顶部的OLR场正在生成，作为数据同化和预测（至8天）产品的一部分。诺格斯-佩格尔博士将研究1985-1993年的再分析结果，将OLR的模型模拟结果与同一时期的卫星测量结果进行比较。她还将通过评估初始热带对流场的不确定性对中纬度地区预报的影响来评估NCEP模式的预报能力。这些研究将为更广泛的大气科学界提供关于再分析产品质量和NCEP模式参数化有效性的重要见解。＊＊＊

9523536 Nogues-Paegle The latent heat release associated with convective activity is an important source of atmospheric heating which drives atmospheric circulations. Because clouds greatly reduce the earth's outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), satellite-derived OLR fields can be used, at least in tropical regions, to identify regions of vigorous convective activity, and atmospheric heating. While the relationship between tropical convection and global circulation patterns has been established in observational studies, an assessment of the effectiveness of global models to simulate this connection has been hampered by the lack of model derived OLR fields that could be compared with observations. As part of the reanalysis project underway at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), OLR fields for the top of the atmosphere are being produced both as part of the data assimilation and for the forecast (to eight days) products. Dr. Nogues-Paegle will examine the reanalysis products for 1985-1993, comparing the model simulations of OLR to satellite measured fields for the same periods. She also will assess the NCEP model forecast skill by assessing the effect of uncertainties in initial tropical convection field on forecasts for the mid-latitudes. These studies should provide for the broader atmospheric sciences community important insights into quality of the reanalysis products and the effectiveness of the NCEP model parameterizations. ***