Modeling Primary Production of the Southern Ocean for ROAVERRS (Research on Ocean-Atmosphere Variability and Ecosystem Response in the Ross Sea)

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9529569 Lizotte This proposal describes modeling studies of primary production in the water column and sea ice for an NSF-funded field program to take place in the southwest Ross Sea between October and March of 1996-97 and 1997-98. The focus of the initial modeling studies will be to derive initial estimates of primary productivity for the Southern Ocean. These initial estimates will be based on: 1) current understanding of the physiology, biochemistry and ecology of Southern Ocean phytoplankton and sea ice algae; 2) climatologies for sea ice cover, cloud cover, sea surface temperature and algal pigments; and 3) existing modeling approaches for depth-dependent (1-D) primary production in sea ice and water column. One of the primary goals is to make the first determination of the relative amounts of primary production in the water column and in the sea ice using a consistent, modern estimation method (bio-optical modeling) for both systems. Sensitivity analyses will then be performed to guide planning of the ROAVERRS Project; these analyses will be directly applicable to planning for JGOFS and GLOBEC activities related to the question of estimating primary production in the Southern Ocean. Specifically, they will study model sensitivity to sampling scales (temporal and spatial) in the ROAVERRS study region and to variation in the variables proposed for measurement during ROAVERRS (e.g., algal bio-optics, photosynthetic parameters, spectral quality of light, nutrient concentration, sea ice thickness, snow cover, water column mixing rates, temperature). Following completion of this modeling study, the ROAVERRS Project will make improvements to the models based on an expanded data base (e.g., tuning the model for different types of sea ice habitat or phytoplankton blooms) and carry out testing of these models against field observations.