GOALI: Stochastic Models for Electric Power Production Costing.

目标：电力生产成本的随机模型。

• 批准号: 9632702
• 负责人: Mainak Mazumdar
• 金额: $ 21.07万
• 依托单位: University of Pittsburgh
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-08-01 至 2000-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9632702&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: GOALI; Stochastic; Models; Electric; Power

9632702 Mazumdar The purpose of the proposed project is to find suitable methods for obtaining the statistical distribution of electric power system production costs by taking into account the major sources of uncertainty that include generator outages, load, and fuel prices. Information on the distributions is important for risk evaluation, fuel inventory planning, model validation, and sensitivity analysis of planning decisions. A distinguishing feature of the project will be explicit modeling of the stochastic processes associated with these generation outages and chronological load. The determination of the expected values of these distributions does not require the consideration of these random processes, but for computation of higher order statistics such as the standard deviation or estimating the entire distribution, this is necessary. Consideration of these processes for estimating the temporal correlations between the amounts of energy production makes the analytical computations difficult and challenging. It is argued in the proposal that this work will maintain its relevance after deregulation and the arrival of the competitive market structure in the operation of electric power companies. ***

小行星9632702 拟议项目的目的是找到合适的方法，通过考虑到不确定性的主要来源，包括发电机停机，负荷和燃料价格，获得电力系统生产成本的统计分布。 有关分布的信息对于风险评估、燃料库存规划、模型验证和规划决策的敏感性分析非常重要。 该项目的一个显着特点将是显式建模的随机过程与这些发电中断和时序负荷。 这些分布的期望值的确定不需要考虑这些随机过程，但对于高阶统计量的计算，如标准差或估计整个分布，这是必要的。 考虑这些过程来估计能源生产量之间的时间相关性，使得分析计算变得困难和具有挑战性。 建议书认为，在电力公司的运营中，在放松管制和竞争性市场结构到来之后，这项工作将保持其相关性。 ***