GOALI: Stochastic Models for Electric Power Production Costing.

所提议的项目的目的是找到合适的方法来获得电力系统生产成本的统计分布，考虑到主要的不确定性来源，包括发电机停机、负荷和燃料价格。分布信息对于风险评估、燃料库存规划、模型验证和规划决策的敏感性分析非常重要。该项目的一个显著特征将是与这些发电中断和时序负荷相关的随机过程的明确建模。这些分布的期望值的确定不需要考虑这些随机过程，但对于计算高阶统计量，如标准差或估计整个分布，这是必要的。考虑到这些过程来估计能源产量之间的时间相关性，使得分析计算变得困难和具有挑战性。在提案中认为，在放松管制和电力公司运营中竞争市场结构的到来之后，这项工作将保持其相关性。＊＊＊

9632702 Mazumdar The purpose of the proposed project is to find suitable methods for obtaining the statistical distribution of electric power system production costs by taking into account the major sources of uncertainty that include generator outages, load, and fuel prices. Information on the distributions is important for risk evaluation, fuel inventory planning, model validation, and sensitivity analysis of planning decisions. A distinguishing feature of the project will be explicit modeling of the stochastic processes associated with these generation outages and chronological load. The determination of the expected values of these distributions does not require the consideration of these random processes, but for computation of higher order statistics such as the standard deviation or estimating the entire distribution, this is necessary. Consideration of these processes for estimating the temporal correlations between the amounts of energy production makes the analytical computations difficult and challenging. It is argued in the proposal that this work will maintain its relevance after deregulation and the arrival of the competitive market structure in the operation of electric power companies. ***