Displacement and Downsizing Effects on Older Workers

这是一项关于公司裁员对老年员工影响的研究。本研究使用来自当前人口调查和劳工统计局大规模裁员系列的匹配数据来探索内部劳动力市场、大规模裁员、工人年龄和失业概率之间的关系。解释这些关系的具体假设来自两种不同的社会学制度理论——“象征效率”和“内在二元论”——以及一种微观经济理论——拉齐尔的强制退休理论。这些假设将在个人分析水平上进行评估，允许对不同背景下年龄组特定流离失所概率的统计概括陈述。工人的失业，特别是那些由公司裁员造成的失业，已经成为批评和关注美国经济表现的避雷针。虽然以当代标准衡量，失业率相对较低，但最近流离失所的人数和类型令人不安，因为它们被解释为表明我国就业关系的基本结构发生了变化。特别是，许多观察人士将长期工人的解雇作为令人信服的证据，证明在临时工作时代，雇主与工人之间持久而稳定的关系已经消失。在认真对待这一结论之前，需要解决像本研究中检查的经验问题。本项目除了有助于验证关于雇佣关系的不同社会科学命题外，还将为这一社会生活领域的政策分析师提供重要的背景信息。例如，将有可能检查年龄组特定的流离失所概率，无论是否控制其他个人特征（例如教育）和行业水平特征（例如行业的养老金覆盖范围）。

This is a study of the effects of corporate downsizing on older workers. This research uses matched data from Current Population Surveys and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Mass Layoff Series to explore the relationships among internal labor markets, mass layoffs, workers' ages, and the probabilities of job displacement. Specific hypotheses that explain these relationships are generated from two different institutional theories from sociology -- "symbolic efficiency" and "internal dualism"-- and from one microeconomic theory -- Lazear's mandatory retirement theory. These hypotheses will be evaluated at the individual level of analysis allowing statistically generalizable statements about age group specific displacement probabilities under different contextual circumstances. Worker displacements, especially those which result from corporate downsizing, have become a lightening rod for criticism and concern about U. S. economic performance. Although unemployment is relatively low by contemporary standards, the number and type of recent displacements are troubling insofar as they have been interpreted as signaling a change in the basic fabric of our country's employment relations. In particular, many observers have taken dismissals of long-term workers as convincing evidence that durable and stable relationships between employers and workers have disappeared in an era of contingent work. Empirical questions like those examined in this study need to be addressed before this conclusion can be taken seriously. In addition to this project's contribution to verifying different social science propositions about employment relationships, it will also provide important background information for policy analysts in this area of social life. For example, it will be possible to examine age-group specific displacement probabilities with and without controls for both other individual characteristics (e.g. education) and for industry level characteristics (e.g. pension coverage in the industry) .