Exchange Rate Swings, Reallocation, and Heterogeneity

9811059 Gourinchas 该项目解决了以下问题：当汇率波动时，实体经济会发生什么？更具体地说，本研究分析了汇率波动对要素重新配置的影响。传统模型强调劳动力和资本的部门间重新分配，而本项目则侧重于部门内效应。新的多部门非代表性部门再配置模型是在有关微观经济非凸性和异质性的丰富理论和实证文献的基础上开发的。重点是技术采用的时机，这是企业间异质性的重要来源，这可能会受到实际汇率等相对价格波动的影响。这项研究的长期目标是整合横截面动态信息，以帮助确定冲击如何在经济中传播。另一个目标是了解实际汇率波动以及定价决策、要素配置或进入和退出的持续波动对微观和宏观经济的影响，并将其联系起来。本研究将使用纵向研究数据库（LRD）的微观数据来衡量和识别驱动工厂实物资本调整的汇率因素。拟议的规范根据不同部门的不同汇率弹性确定了汇率贡献。这部分研究衡量汇率波动如何影响微观调整的时间和幅度，以及如何通过工厂调整率的横截面分布和时间变化来过滤它们。这项研究提供了有关重新分配冲击的传播和放大、微观调整模式以及哪些行业对汇率敏感的信息的有用信息。最后，它将结果与可观察的特征（产品耐用性、加价、市场结构、资本密集度和贸易风险）联系起来。

9811059 Gourinchas This project addresses the following question: what happens to the real economy when exchange rates fluctuate? More specifically, this research analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on factor reallocation. While traditional models emphasize inter-sectoral reallocation of workers and capital, this project focuses on intrasectoral effects. New multi-sectors non-representative models of sectoral reallocation are developed building upon the rich theoretical and empirical literature on micro-economic non-convexities and heterogeneity. The emphasis is on the timing of technology adoption, an important source of heterogeneity across firms, which is likely to be influenced by relative price fluctuations such as real exchange rates. A long run goal of this research is to incorporate information on the dynamics of the cross-section to help identify how shocks propagate through the economy. Another goal is to understand and tie together micro and macro-economic implications of real exchange rate volatility and persistent swings on pricing decisions, factor allocation or entry and exit. This research will use micro data from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD)to measure and identify the exchange rate component driving plants' physical capital adjustments. The proposed specification identifies exchange rate contributions off the different exchange rate elasticities of different sectors. This part of the research measures how exchange rate fluctuations affect the timing and magnitude of micro adjustment and how they are filtered through the cross-section distribution and time variations in plants adjustment rate. This research provides useful information on the propagation and amplification of reallocation shocks, the micro adjustment patterns, well as information on which industries are exchange rate sensitive. Lastly, it relates the results to observable characteristics (product durability, mark-up, market structure, capital intensity and trade exposure).