Exchange Rate Swings, Reallocation, and Heterogeneity

9811059 Gourinchas这个项目解决了以下问题：当汇率波动时，实体经济会发生什么？更具体地说，本研究分析了汇率波动对要素再配置的影响。传统模型强调工人和资本在部门间的再分配，而本项目侧重于部门内的影响。基于大量关于微观经济非凸性和异质性的理论和实证文献，提出了新的多部门非代表性的部门再配置模型。重点是技术采用的时机，这是各公司异质性的一个重要来源，很可能受到实际汇率等相对价格波动的影响。这项研究的长期目标是整合有关横截面动态的信息，以帮助确定冲击如何在经济中传播。另一个目标是理解并将实际汇率波动和对定价决策、要素配置或进入和退出的持续波动的微观和宏观经济影响联系在一起。本研究将使用纵向研究数据库（LRD）的微观数据来衡量和识别驱动工厂实物资本调整的汇率成分。建议的规范确定了不同部门的不同汇率弹性对汇率的贡献。这部分研究测量了汇率波动如何影响微观调整的时间和幅度，以及它们如何通过植物调整率的截面分布和时间变化来过滤。这项研究提供了关于再分配冲击的传播和放大、微观调整模式以及哪些行业对汇率敏感的有用信息。最后，它将结果与可观察到的特征（产品耐用性，加价，市场结构，资本强度和贸易风险）联系起来。

9811059 Gourinchas This project addresses the following question: what happens to the real economy when exchange rates fluctuate? More specifically, this research analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on factor reallocation. While traditional models emphasize inter-sectoral reallocation of workers and capital, this project focuses on intrasectoral effects. New multi-sectors non-representative models of sectoral reallocation are developed building upon the rich theoretical and empirical literature on micro-economic non-convexities and heterogeneity. The emphasis is on the timing of technology adoption, an important source of heterogeneity across firms, which is likely to be influenced by relative price fluctuations such as real exchange rates. A long run goal of this research is to incorporate information on the dynamics of the cross-section to help identify how shocks propagate through the economy. Another goal is to understand and tie together micro and macro-economic implications of real exchange rate volatility and persistent swings on pricing decisions, factor allocation or entry and exit. This research will use micro data from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD)to measure and identify the exchange rate component driving plants' physical capital adjustments. The proposed specification identifies exchange rate contributions off the different exchange rate elasticities of different sectors. This part of the research measures how exchange rate fluctuations affect the timing and magnitude of micro adjustment and how they are filtered through the cross-section distribution and time variations in plants adjustment rate. This research provides useful information on the propagation and amplification of reallocation shocks, the micro adjustment patterns, well as information on which industries are exchange rate sensitive. Lastly, it relates the results to observable characteristics (product durability, mark-up, market structure, capital intensity and trade exposure).