Estimating Income Effects Using a Sample of Lottery Players

使用彩票玩家样本估计收入影响

• 批准号: 9812057
• 负责人: Guido Imbens
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-08-15 至 1999-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9812057&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Estimating; Income; Effects; Using; Sample

9812057 Imbens A previous project (NSF grant number SBR9423018) collected data on people who played the Massachusetts lottery, including those who won small onetime prizes and people who won large prizes paid out over twenty years. This project uses these data to compare people who played and won large amounts of money in the lottery, "winners", with people who played the lottery but did not win large amounts of money "losers"; the points for comparison include their labor supply, consumption and savings behavior, and the educational achievement of, and expenditures for, their children. The critical reason for collecting lottery data was to exploit the randomization in the lottery to reconstruct a randomized experiment with an infusion of income as the treatment condition. For three reasons, namely the response rate in the survey was 50%, the probability of winning the lottery depends on the number of tickets bought (a variable which is only imperfectly observed), and the winners were drawn from a different population than the losers, there are pretreatment differences between the various groups. The investigators pursue a variety of methods to deal with adjustments to make the subsequent comparisons more credible. Preliminary results suggest that adjusting for pretreatment differences leads to credible estimates of the causal effect of income on labor supply.

小行星9812057 之前的一个项目（美国国家科学基金会资助号SBR 9423018）收集了马萨诸塞州彩票玩家的数据，包括那些赢得一次性小额奖金的人和那些赢得20多年大奖的人。 该项目利用这些数据，将玩彩票并赢得大量金钱的人（“赢家”）与玩彩票但没有赢得大量金钱的人（“输家”）进行比较;比较的要点包括他们的劳动力供应，消费和储蓄行为，以及他们的子女的教育成就和支出。收集彩票数据的关键原因是利用彩票中的随机性来重建一个以注入收入为处理条件的随机实验。 有三个原因，即调查中的回复率为50%，中奖的概率取决于购买的彩票数量（一个变量，只有不完全观察），中奖者来自不同的人群，而不是失败者，各组之间存在预处理差异。研究人员采用各种方法来处理调整，使随后的比较更加可信。 初步结果表明，调整前的差异导致可靠的估计收入对劳动力供给的因果关系。