Why De-Industrialization Increased AFDC Caseloads: A Comparison of Family Structure and Earnings Effects

在过去的40年里，美国经济经历了巨大的重组。在整个20世纪50年代，制造业一直是美国经济中最大的部门，雇佣了全国三分之一以上的工人。到1996年，由于国际竞争和技术变革侵蚀了就业机会，制造业部门雇用的工人不到全国所有工人的16%。这些失业往往是永久性的，主要是低技能的人，严重损害了受影响的当地经济。然而，对低技能妇女及其子女可能产生的影响在很大程度上被忽视了。在拟议的研究中，研究人员考虑了低技能男性在钢铁和煤炭开采行业的经济机会减少最终如何影响低技能女性。这些行业的就业冲击不可能对妇女的收入产生强烈的直接影响，因为在1970年，初级金属制造业中只有8%的工人是妇女，在煤矿开采中只有不到3%的工人是妇女。然而，AFDC项目的参与者绝大多数是贫穷的单身妇女和她们的孩子。这些行业的就业冲击是否改变了女性的AFDC参与？本研究的目的是探讨这个问题，并将调查范围扩大到制造业的就业冲击。根据定义，妇女通过家庭构成的变化或收入机会的变化进入和退出AFDC计划。由于这些经济冲击极大地改变了低技能男性的经济前景，它们将影响这些男性作为婚姻伴侣的吸引力。因此，经济繁荣可能会增加男性作为丈夫的吸引力，提高结婚率。这将减少有资格获得AFDC的妇女人数。按照同样的逻辑，经济萧条会降低结婚率，使更多的女性未婚。从某种程度上说，这些未婚妇女是贫穷和有孩子的，她们中的更多人将面临AFDC的风险。由于AFDC是一项经济状况调查计划，妇女收入的变化也会影响AFDC的参与。这些对低技能男性就业的巨大冲击很可能产生了溢出效应，改变了低技能女性的收入机会。在围绕单一制造工厂发展起来的小城镇尤其如此。1970年，有些县有多达38%的男性从事初级金属工业。这表明，制造业的失业将大大降低雇用低技能妇女的部门对服务的需求。此外，由于制造业工作岗位减少而被取代的男性可能会竞争以前由女性担任的工作。本项目考察了男性主导行业遭受的巨大而持久的冲击如何影响妇女参与非洲发展共同体的机制。作为这些就业冲击的结果，女性是否变得更有可能非婚生孩子，更不可能结婚并保持婚姻？或者是外溢效应降低了低技能妇女的就业和收入前景？该项目使用的机密数据包括工厂关闭的地点和时间，以及县级人口群体就业、收入、婚姻和生育率的变化。这些数据使研究人员能够以以前不可能的方式调查制造业工作破坏对当地社区的影响。

The U.S. economy has undergone tremendous restructuring over the last 40 years. Throughout the 1950s, manufacturing was the largest sector of the economy and consistently employed more than one-third of the nation's workers. By 1996, the manufacturing sector employed less than 16% of all workers in the country, as international competition and technological change eroded job opportunities. These job losses have tended to be permanent, to involve low-skilled men disproportionately, and to severely hurt the local economies affected. However, the possible effects on low-skilled women and their children have been largely ignored. In the proposed research, the investigators consider how the decline in economic opportunities for low-skilled men in the steel and coal mining industries ultimately affected low-skilled women. The employment shocks in these industries could not have had strong direct effects on the earnings of women as only 8% of workers in primary metal manufacturing were women and less than 3% of workers in coal mining were women in 1970. However, participants in the AFDC program are overwhelmingly poor, single women and their children. Did employment shocks to these industries alter women's AFDC participation? The objective of the proposed research is to explore this question and expand the investigation to employment shocks in manufacturing more generally. By definition, women enter and exit the AFDC program either through changes in family composition or through changes in earnings opportunities. Since these economic shocks substantially altered the economic prospects of low-skilled men, they would have affected the attractiveness of these men as marriage partners. Therefore, an economic boom would presumably increase men's attractiveness as husbands and increase marriage rates. This would reduce the number of women eligible for AFDC. An economic bust would, by the same logic, decrease marriage rates, leaving more women unmarried. To the extent that these unmarried women are poor and have children, more of them would be at risk for AFDC. Because AFDC is a means-tested program, changes in women's earnings also affect AFDC participation. It is very likely that these large shocks to employment of low-skilled men created a spillover effect that changed the earnings opportunities of low-skilled women. This is particularly true in the small towns that developed around single manufacturing plants. In 1970, there were counties with as up to 38% of their men employed in the primary metal industry. This suggests that job losses in manufacturing would have substantially lowered the demand for services from sectors employing low-skilled women. In addition, the men that were displaced by the loss of manufacturing jobs would presumably have then competed for jobs previously held by women. This project examines the mechanisms by which large, permanent shocks to male-dominated industries affected women's AFDC participation. As a result of these employment shocks did women become more likely to bear children out-of-wedlock and less likely to become and remain married? Or did the spillover effects lower the employment and earnings prospects of low-skilled women? The project uses confidential data on the location and timing of plant closings, and on changes in employment, earnings, marriage and fertility by demographic group at the county level. These data enable the researchers to investigate the impact of manufacturing job destruction on the local community in ways that were previously impossible.