SBIR Phase I: Web-Based Urn Sampler and Statistical Authoring Environment

Cytel Software 的这一小型企业创新研究第一阶段项目将开发一个基于网络的“瓮采样器”，让学生能够通过熟悉的概率机制解决问题，例如从瓮中抽球、掷骰子、从列表中抽出数字以及洗牌。 Urn Sampler 将通过使用熟悉的符号和标准工具来降低学习障碍：用于采样操作的图标以及用于数据输入和计算的电子表格界面。 它将嵌入并作为基于网络的创作环境的关键组成部分，统计教师可以在该环境中创建、共享和提供基于 Urn Sampler 的实验练习，以及超链接文本、短视频剪辑、自我评估考试和常见问题 (FAQ)。 其目的是创建一个统计课程开发“社区”，就像 Linux 操作系统的开放可用性创建了一个有助于该系统进一步开发的社区一样。 Urn Sampler 面向不同的受众，包括选修定量推理或统计学必修课程的本科生和研究生、选修统计学专业或辅修课程的本科生、学习统计学的研究生以及继续教育学生。统计导论教育一直是一个问题领域：许多学生从必修课程中学到很少，并且不喜欢该学科。 出于同样的原因，更好的产品瞄准统计学学生市场也是一个商业机会——估计每年有 1,000,000 名统计学本科生，每个学生在书籍、软件和其他材料上的支出为 50 至 100 美元，因此每年的市场总额超过 5,000 万美元。 Urn Sampler 中体现的 Cytel Software 重采样/模拟方法作为教学策略拥有成功的记录，基于网络的创作和学习环境将允许共享最好和最具创新性的课程材料。

This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I project from Cytel Software will develop a web-based 'Urn Sampler' that allows students to solve problems via the familiar probability mechanisms of drawing balls from an urn, throwing dice, drawing numbers from a list, and shuffling a deck of cards. The Urn Sampler will present a low learning hurdle by using familiar symbols and standard tools: icons for sampling operations and a spreadsheet interface for data entry and calculations. It will be embedded in and serve as the key component of a web-based authoring environment in which statistics teachers create, share and deliver lab exercises based on the Urn Sampler, as well as hyperlinked text, short video clips, self-assessment exams and frequently asked questions (FAQ's). The intent is to create a statistics curriculum development 'community' in much the same way that the open availability of the Linux operating system has created a community that contributes to further development of that system. The Urn Sampler will address a diverse audience, including undergraduate and graduate students taking a required course in quantitative reasoning or statistics, students taking an undergraduate major or minor in statistics, graduate students studying statistics, and continuing education students.Introductory statistics education has always been a problem area: many students learn little from their required course and take a disliking to the subject. By the same token, it is a commercial opportunity for a better product to target the market of statistics students-there are estimated 1,000,000 undergraduate statistics students per year with per student expenditures of $50 to $100 for books, software and other materials and thus a total market of over $50 million annually. Cytel Software's resampling/simulation approach embodied in the Urn Sampler has a successful track record as a teaching strategy, and the web-based authoring and learning environment will allow sharing of the best and most innovative curricular materials.