Strategic Renewal of Large Floodplain Rivers: Integrated Analysis

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Large rivers and the valleys through which they flow support a rich array of aquatic and flood-tolerant plants and animals as well as a diverse set of human economic activities. Ecological systems naturally evolved in response to periodic flood pulses, but the construction of large dams along these rivers has disrupted these cycles, as has the conversion of land from natural cover to managed land uses. A challenge facing those involved in management of rivers, floodplains, and other parts of large river valleys is to develop management strategies and practices that sustain ecological systems without disrupting the human economic and settlement systems that have evolved in the same areas. This interdisciplinary project builds on the efforts of a team of hydrologists, ecologists, economists, and regional scientists currently engaged in adapting system-component models to an 80-mile section of the Illinois River between the LaGrange and Peoria dams in west-central Illinois. A hydrological component of this project will involve the calibration of 1-D and 2-D models and the testing of their modeling of high-frequency flood events and strategic management changes. An ecological component will involve the creation of dynamic, hydrology-driven models of floodplain forest and marsh vegetation. Habitat suitability indices and professional judgments will produce estimates of consequent changes in fish and wildlife species mix and population levels. Economic research will estimate changes in regional income and employment and identify sub-county areas that will be particularly affected under different management scenarios. Work on these component models and on linkages among them will be conducted in the high speed computing and advanced data management environment available through the National Center for Supercomputing Applications. This supercomputing environment also will be employed to develop visualization tools for communicating spatially dynamic research findings to stakeholders. This project will develop a suite of interrelated, dynamic models of hydrology and ecology of a river/floodplain system and will link them to the local economy. The project focuses on gaps within and linkages among the component models and will create visualization tools to communicate the modeling results. The models will be used to simulate, test, and communicate with stakeholders about alternative restoration strategies related to the general hypothesis that: river hydrology and floodplain lands can be managed in ways that restore ecosystem services while not diminishing the overall economic well-being of the affected region.