Evaluation of Biogeochemical Watershed Models: How Do We Know When A Model is Wrong?

生物地球化学流域模型的评估：我们如何知道模型何时错误？

• 批准号: 0094312
• 负责人: Thomas Meixner
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: University of California-Riverside
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-05-01 至 2005-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0094312&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evaluation; Biogeochemical; Watershed; Models; How

0094312MeixnerBiogeochemical watershed models have become disconnected from rigorous hypothesis testing due to a lack of available evaluation tools, thereby limiting the usefulness of these models. I propose to improve the utilitty of biogeochemical watershed models by developing improved techniques of hypothesis testing using recently developed multi-criteria calibration techniques. Three questions will be addressed: (1) What are the benefits of distributed models of catchment biogeochemistry? (2) How do we incorporate multiple fluxes and state variables into our judgment of how well a model is performing? (3) How do we use different types of data in evaluating what is wrong with a model? Preliminary results with multi-media methods have shown promise in solving the hypothesis-testing challenge of biogeochemical watershed models. I will foster the development of these methods through both education and fundamental research into these techniques. I will develop an innovative group project on watershed mass balance models for the general hydrology course I teach. The graduate education portion of the project will involve lecture and collective learning in small groups using a simple bucket model of watershed processes. The group project will take the students from the rudiments of model construction to the tools available for model calibration and model evaluation of lumped as well as distributed hydrologic models. This course will form the foundation for the biogeochemical watershed modeling group I hope to create. The research I propose will focus on the development of multi-criteria model calibration and evaluation tools for multi-process biogeochemical watershed models. The proposed work includes testing the AHM model of the Emerald Lake watershed using "true" (testing for parameter uniqueness and identification) and real data sets using the available multi-criteria evaluation tools. Model calibration will be conducted for several scenarios comparing the level of spatial aggregation, time series duration, and the kinds of data available (outflow time series in addition to spatial data of soil conditions). These studies will investigate the utility of distributed biogeochemical watershed models and what sort of data is needed to properly parameterize and evaluate these models. I will also conduct similar modeling studies with agricultural non-point source models with the assistance of a post-doctoral associate trained in agricultural engineering. Finally, I will establish a biogeochemical watershed processes field site at the San Diego Experimental Forest.

0094312由于缺乏可用的评估工具，Meixner生物地球化学流域模型已与严格的假设检验断开，从而限制了这些模型的有用性。 我建议通过发展改进的假设检验技术，使用最近开发的多标准校准技术，以提高地球化学流域模型的效用。 本文将讨论三个问题：（1）分布式流域地球化学模型的优点是什么？ (2)我们如何将多个通量和状态变量纳入我们对模型表现如何的判断中？ (3)我们如何使用不同类型的数据来评估模型的错误？ 多媒体方法的初步结果显示，在解决地球化学流域模型的假设检验挑战的承诺。 我将通过对这些技术的教育和基础研究来促进这些方法的发展。 我将为我教授的普通水文学课程开发一个关于流域质量平衡模型的创新小组项目。 该项目的研究生教育部分将涉及使用流域过程的简单桶模型的讲座和小组集体学习。 该小组项目将带领学生从模型构建的基础知识到可用于集总和分布式水文模型的模型校准和模型评估的工具。 本课程将为我希望建立的地球化学流域建模小组奠定基础。 本论文的主要研究方向是多过程流域地球化学模型的多准则模型校正和评价工具的开发。 拟议的工作包括测试AHM模型的翡翠湖流域使用“真”（测试参数的唯一性和识别）和真实的数据集，使用现有的多标准评价工具。 将对几种情景进行模型校准，比较空间聚集程度、时间序列持续时间和可用数据种类（流出时间序列以及土壤条件空间数据）。 这些研究将调查分布式水文地球化学流域模型的效用，以及需要什么样的数据来正确地参数化和评估这些模型。 我还将进行类似的建模研究与农业非点源模型的援助下，在农业工程培训的博士后助理。 最后，我将在圣地亚哥实验森林建立一个生态地球化学流域过程现场。