Survival and Lifetime Reproductive Success in Birds

这个项目利用了迄今为止为自由生活的鸟类收集的最大的数据集之一，这是一个基于对三个迁徙鸭子物种的长期研究的数据集，其中幼小的鸭子和它们的母亲被单独标记，然后在以后的生活中定位。先进的统计程序将被用来评估终生繁殖成功(LRS)，这是对野生动物生物适合性的最佳估计。LRS将两个关键指标--每次繁殖尝试产生的成年幼崽数量和成年成虫存活率--合并为个人终身生殖表现的单一指标。这项研究是先前资助的NSF项目的一个令人兴奋的扩展。结果将阐明LRS的差异以及生存和生殖努力之间的权衡。该项目的一个关键部分是将现代生存分析技术与其他先进的统计程序相结合，同时评估许多可能的LRS预测因素的相对重要性。这些发现可能对调整捕捞的迁徙水鸟狩猎季节的时间、长度和袋子限制具有实际的管理意义。此外，衡量个体特征与外部环境变化对LRS的相对影响将极大地帮助设计成功的鸟类保护计划。

0108373BlumsThis project utilizes one of the largest datasets ever assembled for free-living birds, a dataset based on a long-term study of three migratory duck species in which young ducklings and their mothers are individually marked and then located later in life. Advanced statistical procedures will be used to assess lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the best available estimate of biological fitness in wild animals. LRS combines two key measures, the number of full-grown young produced from each breeding attempt and adult survivalrates, into a single measure of individual lifetime reproductive performance. This study is an exciting extension of a previously-funded NSF project. Results will elucidate variation in LRS and trade-offs between survival and reproductive effort. A critical part of the project is the combined application of modern survival analysis techniques with other advanced statistical procedures, providing simultaneous evaluation of the relative importance of numerous possible predictors of LRS. These findings are likely to have practical management implications for adjusting the timing, length, and bag limits for hunting seasons of harvested migratory waterfowl. Furthermore, gauging the relative impact on LRS of an individual's characteristics versus external environmental variation will greatly assist the design of successful bird conservation programs.