Climate and Glacier Variations in Scandinavia

这是一项由华盛顿大学和斯德哥尔摩大学的主要研究人员合作提出的建议。首席调查员将调查北大西洋气候模式的变化与挪威和瑞典冰川之间的关系。他们将重点放在斯堪的纳维亚半岛西海岸有三个原因。首先，冰川的未来与气候变化有关，对区域水文和全球海平面具有重要影响。其次，从历史上看，明显的冰川波动表明该地区对气候异常高度敏感。北半球冬季气候受一种被称为北半球环状模态（NAM）的大尺度气候模式支配，这种气候模式取决于极夜急流的强度。不结盟运动的变化对斯堪的纳维亚沿海地区的影响尤其强烈；对冰川记录的分析有可能大大提高对不干流现在和过去行为的认识。第三，提高对该地区气候的了解也可能是帮助解决有关温盐环流在自然气候变率中的作用的突出问题的关键。他们的方法是利用现有的一套对斯堪的纳维亚冰川进行的高分辨率测量，以及过去50年可用的国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析的网格化大气数据。具体来说，他们将：1)通过应用他们成熟的模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据，建立现代（过去50年）气候与冰川之间的关系；2)利用气候-冰川响应的统计数据，得出可能产生小冰河期斯堪的纳维亚半岛已知存在的冰川的气候条件；3)利用统计数据研究未来可能气候情景下冰川的潜在变化。定量了解气候和冰川之间的相互作用很重要，原因有二。首先，过去冰川波动的记录可以用来帮助重建过去的气候模式。其次，面对气候变化，冰川的未来对海平面和水文具有重要的全球性影响。这项研究涉及与华盛顿大学和斯德哥尔摩大学的主要研究人员合作，因此它将促进国际合作。这项研究还将为地球和空间科学的研究生提供核心教育，重点是气候和冰川学，学生将从接触国际社会中受益。

ABSTRACTOPP-0240861ConwayThis is a collaborative proposal by Principal Investigators at the Universities of Washington and Stockholm. The Principal Investigators will investigate relationships between variations of climate patterns in the North Atlantic and glaciers in Norway and Sweden. They will focus on the west coast of Scandinavia for three reasons. First, the future of the glaciers in relation to climate change has important consequences for regional hydrology and global sea level. Second, historically, pronounced glacial fluctuations suggest that the region is highly sensitive to climate anomalies. Winter climate in the is dominated by a large-scale climate pattern known as the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) that depends on the strength of the polar night jet stream. Variations in the NAM have a particularly strong effect along coastal Scandinavia; analysis of the glacial record has potential to greatly improve understanding of present and past behavior of the NAM. Third, an improved understanding of the climate of the region may also be key for helping to resolve outstanding issues concerning the role of the thermohaline circulation in natural climate variability. Their approach is to make use of the existing suite of high-resolution measurements that have been made on the glaciers of Scandinavia, and gridded atmospheric National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis) data that are available for the last 50 years. Specifically, they will 1) establish modern (past 50 years) relationships between climate and glaciers by applying their well-proven models and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data; 2) use the statistics of climate-glacier response to derive possible climate conditions that would produce glaciers of the extent known to exist in Scandinavia during the Little Ice Age; and 3) use the statistics to investigate potential glacier changes under future possible climate scenarios. Quantitative understanding of interactions between climate and glaciers is important for two reasons. First, the record of past glacier fluctuations can be used to help reconstruct past patterns of climate. Second, the future of glaciers in the face of climate change has important and global consequences for sea level and hydrology. This research involves collaboration with Principal Investigators at the Universities of Washington and Stockholm, so it will foster international co-operation. The research will also provide core education for a graduate student in Earth and Space Sciences with an emphasis in climate and glaciology and the student will benefit from exposure to the international community.