Collaborative Research: Complex Controls on the Distribution of Lightning Characteristics and Property Damage in an Urbanized Region

与飓风或龙卷风等其他天气现象相比，闪电对财产的破坏往往不那么壮观，在时间上更分散。因此，人们对闪电造成巨大经济损失的潜力认识不足。最近的研究发现，大城市地区产生的热量可能会改变当地雷击的分布。然而，人们对这种闪电的特征以及地表特性和土地利用趋势如何影响其破坏潜力知之甚少。迄今进行的闪电财产损害的地理研究表明，闪电风险是线性的，并且只假设一个原因。例如，闪电财产损失的趋势可以归因于背景雷雨制度，这是物理环境施加的一种控制。其他研究强调，这些损失趋势是由于社会对雷暴的敏感性增加造成的。这个项目的研究是独一无二的，因为研究人员同时将物理环境和社会模板视为相互作用的因果因素。调查人员将在地理信息系统框架内使用多元技术、地图可视化和遥感气象数据，以扩展城市闪电危害的知识，这是城市蔓延中相对未被记录的环境方面。佐治亚州亚特兰大的研究区域为研究这些相互作用如何形成闪电危险提供了理想的环境。最近的研究发现，来自亚特兰大市中心的高温会在边远县引发雷雨。调查人员将使用雷击数据、保险索赔摘要和空间地形数据来绘制闪电特征图，并测试有关相关财产损失潜在控制的假设。调查人员还将研究这些雷暴的结构、位置和一天中的时间与闪电产生的对应关系。考虑到人口稠密地区的巨大经济负担，城市天气灾害最近被美国天气研究计划确定为一个极其重要的研究领域。通过阐述闪电灾害的微妙之处，调查人员提供了如何在城市化地区重新分配保险风险和分配应急服务资源的细节。鉴于在全球变暖下闪电频率预计会增加，对城市闪电危害的基线评估将是未来调查的宝贵信息来源。通过阐明城市雷暴结构、分布和闪电产生之间的关系，也将对城市雷暴气候学领域做出贡献。最后，这项研究将扩展地理学家研究人类与自然系统之间复杂相互作用的概念和方法框架。

Lightning property damage is often less spectacular and more dispersed in time than other weather phenomena such as hurricanes or tornadoes. Consequently, lightning has been under recognized in its potential to generate large economic losses. Recent studies have found that heat generated from large urban areas may alter the local distribution of lightning strikes. However, little is known about the characteristics of this lightning and how surface properties and land-use trends influence its damage potential. Geographic studies of lightning property damage conducted to date cast lightning risk as linear and assume only one causal factor. For example, trends in lightning property damage can be attributed to background thunderstorm regime, a control imposed by the physical environment. Other studies emphasize that these loss trends are caused by an increasing societal sensitivity to thunderstorms. The research in this project is unique in that the researchers simultaneously consider the physical environment and the societal template as interacting causal agents. The investigators will employ multivariate techniques, cartographic visualization, and remotely-sensed meteorological data in a geographic information systems framework to extend the knowledge of urban lightning hazards, a relatively undocumented environmental aspect of urban sprawl. The study region, Atlanta, Georgia, provides an ideal setting to investigate how these interactions shape lightning hazards. Recent studies have found that heat from downtown Atlanta can trigger thunderstorms in outlying counties. The investigators will employ lightning strike data, insurance claims summaries, and spatial physiographic data to map lightning characteristics and to test hypotheses about the underlying controls of associated property damage. The investigators will also examine how the structure, location, and time of day of these thunderstorms correspond to lightning production. Urban weather hazards have recently been identified by the U.S. Weather Research Program as a critically important area of research in consideration of the large economic liabilities embedded within densely-populated regions. By articulating the subtleties of lightning hazards, the investigators provide detail as to how to redistribute insurance risks and allocate emergency service resources in urbanized landscapes. Given predicted increases in lightning frequency under global warming, a baseline assessment of urban lightning hazards will be a valuable source of information for future investigations. By articulating the relationships among urban thunderstorm structure, distribution, and lightning production, contributions will also be made to the field of urban thunderstorm climatology. Finally, this investigation will extend the conceptual and methodological framework through which geographers study the complex interplay between human and natural systems.