Collaborative Research: Complex Controls on the Distribution of Lightning Characteristics and Property Damage in an Urbanized Region

与飓风或龙卷风等其他天气现象相比，闪电造成的财产损失通常不那么引人注目，而且在时间上更分散。因此，人们对闪电造成巨大经济损失的潜力认识不足。最近的研究发现，大城市地区产生的热量可能会改变雷击的局部分布。然而，人们对这种闪电的特征以及表面特性和土地利用趋势如何影响其潜在破坏性知之甚少。迄今为止对雷电财产损失进行的地理研究将雷电风险视为线性，并且仅假设一个因果因素。例如，闪电财产损失的趋势可归因于背景雷暴状况，这是物理环境施加的控制。其他研究强调，这些损失趋势是由于社会对雷暴的敏感性不断增加造成的。该项目的研究是独特的，因为研究人员同时将物理环境和社会模板视为相互作用的因果因素。研究人员将在地理信息系统框架中采用多元技术、地图可视化和遥感气象数据，以扩展对城市闪电危害的了解，这是城市扩张的一个相对没有记录的环境方面。该研究地区位于佐治亚州亚特兰大，为研究这些相互作用如何影响闪电危害提供了理想的环境。最近的研究发现，亚特兰大市中心的高温可能会引发边远县的雷暴。调查人员将利用雷击数据、保险索赔摘要和空间地形数据来绘制闪电特征图，并测试有关相关财产损失的基本控制的假设。研究人员还将研究这些雷暴的结构、位置和一天中的时间与闪电产生的对应关系。考虑到人口稠密地区蕴藏的巨大经济负担，美国天气研究计划最近将城市天气灾害确定为极其重要的研究领域。通过阐明闪电危害的微妙之处，研究人员提供了如何在城市化景观中重新分配保险风险和分配应急服务资源的详细信息。鉴于预计全球变暖导致闪电频率增加，城市闪电危害的基线评估将成为未来调查的宝贵信息来源。通过阐明城市雷暴结构、分布和闪电产生之间的关系，也将为城市雷暴气候学领域做出贡献。最后，这项调查将扩展地理学家研究人类与自然系统之间复杂相互作用的概念和方法框架。

Lightning property damage is often less spectacular and more dispersed in time than other weather phenomena such as hurricanes or tornadoes. Consequently, lightning has been under recognized in its potential to generate large economic losses. Recent studies have found that heat generated from large urban areas may alter the local distribution of lightning strikes. However, little is known about the characteristics of this lightning and how surface properties and land-use trends influence its damage potential. Geographic studies of lightning property damage conducted to date cast lightning risk as linear and assume only one causal factor. For example, trends in lightning property damage can be attributed to background thunderstorm regime, a control imposed by the physical environment. Other studies emphasize that these loss trends are caused by an increasing societal sensitivity to thunderstorms. The research in this project is unique in that the researchers simultaneously consider the physical environment and the societal template as interacting causal agents. The investigators will employ multivariate techniques, cartographic visualization, and remotely-sensed meteorological data in a geographic information systems framework to extend the knowledge of urban lightning hazards, a relatively undocumented environmental aspect of urban sprawl. The study region, Atlanta, Georgia, provides an ideal setting to investigate how these interactions shape lightning hazards. Recent studies have found that heat from downtown Atlanta can trigger thunderstorms in outlying counties. The investigators will employ lightning strike data, insurance claims summaries, and spatial physiographic data to map lightning characteristics and to test hypotheses about the underlying controls of associated property damage. The investigators will also examine how the structure, location, and time of day of these thunderstorms correspond to lightning production. Urban weather hazards have recently been identified by the U.S. Weather Research Program as a critically important area of research in consideration of the large economic liabilities embedded within densely-populated regions. By articulating the subtleties of lightning hazards, the investigators provide detail as to how to redistribute insurance risks and allocate emergency service resources in urbanized landscapes. Given predicted increases in lightning frequency under global warming, a baseline assessment of urban lightning hazards will be a valuable source of information for future investigations. By articulating the relationships among urban thunderstorm structure, distribution, and lightning production, contributions will also be made to the field of urban thunderstorm climatology. Finally, this investigation will extend the conceptual and methodological framework through which geographers study the complex interplay between human and natural systems.