Ecological Detection and Disease Outbreaks
Ecological Detection and Disease Outbreaks
批准号:
0310542
负责人:
Marc Mangel
金额:
$14.0万
依托单位国家:
美国
项目类别:
Continuing Grant
财政年份:
2003
资助国家:
美国
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2003-07-15 至 2007-06-30
中文摘要
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英文摘要
Mangel The study of disease using mathematical models has a longand rich history. Much interesting and new mathematics has beenmotivated by disease, because the problems are inherentlynonlinear and multidimensional. On the other hand, the emergenceof new diseases, the re-emergence of older diseases, and thepotential of bioterrorism require that the mathematics be notonly interesting and new, but applied and applicable. In mostcases of disease outbreak or emergence, learning about theparameters of the disease will occur as it progresses. Thus, thequestions sit at the intersection of the biology of disease,modeling, and analysis of data. In this project, the PInvestigator seeks to apply the process of ecological detection,in which different models compete as explanations of process andthe data arbitrate the outcome of this competittion, to emergingor re-emerging disease. The mathematical theory of disease leadsto fundamental characterizations such as the basic reproductiverate of the disease, the critical number of susceptibles forinfectives to initially spread, and the number of infectives inthe population at the time that the first infection/death isdiscovered. These in turn depend on fundamental populationparameters, and those are the focus of the proposed work. Methodsare developed so that, as a disease progresses, one can learnabout the transmission coefficient of the disease, thedistribution of susceptibles, the level of aggregation inencounters between susceptibles and infecteds, and the level ofdetail needed in the models, for purposes of both understandingand prediction. These methods are based on analysis ofappropriate differential equations, computer simulation,stochastic dynamic programming and Bayesian statistical updating.Furthermore, real populations exist in networks, rather than asrandomly mixing individuals, about which two kinds of questionscan be asked. First, given a specific model for the transmissionof disease, what kind of network is created and what are theproperties of that network? Second, given a network of socialinteractions, what can be said about the dynamics of the diseaseon this network? Both sets of questions are investigated. The proposed work provides new conceptual and operationaltools in dealing with emerging and re-emerging diseases such asHIV/AIDS, epidemic behavior of hepatitis C, the outbreak offoot-and-mouth disease and BSE in the UK, the potential ofsmallpox as a bioterrorist agent, and malaria. The project alsoprovides training to the next generation of appliedmathematicians and mathematical biologists, who -- more than anygeneration before them -- are keen to solve practical problems inthe real world. It thus represents science in the nationalinterest at two different levels.
期刊论文(0)
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会议论文
NSFDEB-NERC: Collaborative Research: Informing population models with evolutionary theory to infer species' conservation status
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批准号:1555729
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$17.6万
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财政年份:2016
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
OPUS: Ectotherms In Changing Climates
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批准号:1451931
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$22.1万
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财政年份:2015
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Beyond maternal effects: Transgenerational plasticity in thermal performance.
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批准号:1130483
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$60.19万
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财政年份:2011
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Towards a theory linking hematopoietic stem cells, foraging ecology, antipredator behavior, and immune defense
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批准号:0924195
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$29.74万
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财政年份:2009
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Workshop: An Interdisciplinary Workshop on Quantitative and Evolutionary Approaches to Environmental Problem Solving
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批准号:0003149
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$0.7万
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财政年份:2000
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Second International Symposium on Krill
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批准号:9814026
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$2.8万
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财政年份:1998
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Krill Life Histories
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批准号:9714983
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$22.98万
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财政年份:1998
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Individual Behavior and Population Processes: Spatial and Multi-trophic Aspects of Insect-Plant and Host-Parasitoid Interactions
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批准号:9117603
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$11.98万
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财政年份:1992
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
GLOBEC: Behavioral Models of Fish Patterning and Response to Global Climate Change
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批准号:9016895
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$14.15万
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财政年份:1990
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Testing and Further Development of Unified Foraging Theory
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批准号:8601073
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$9.0万
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财政年份:1986
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
Control, Decision, and Search Problems Associated With Fisheries and Pest Management (Mathematical Sciences)
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批准号:8121659
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$3.84万
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财政年份:1982
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负责人:Marc Mangel
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依托单位:
国内基金
海外基金
Graphon mean field games with partial observation and application to failure detection in distributed systems
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批准号:
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项目类别:省市级项目
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资助金额:--
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批准年份:2025
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负责人:MATHIEULOUROCHLAURIERE
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依托单位: