Collaborative Research: Sustaining Cooperative Multinational Management of Marine Fisheries in the Face of Environmental Variability

合作研究：面对环境变化维持海洋渔业跨国合作管理

• 批准号: 0323134
• 负责人: Kathleen Miller
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0323134&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Sustaining; Cooperative; Multinational

The goal of this collaborative research is to address the question of achieving stable and mutually beneficial management of multinational marine fisheries in an unstable climatic environment. Specifically the study will examine the effectiveness and robustness of alternative institutional arrangements for joint management of commercially harvested trans-boundary fish stocks in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The project will focus on the disruptive effects of poorly predicted oceanic environmental variability, including sudden climatic regime shifts, and will address the value of improved predictability. It is well known that uncoordinated fishing often will lead to over-harvesting and fish stock depletion, with destructive biological and economic implications. It becomes also a multinational political question when the fish stock ranges across national jurisdictional boundaries, and especially onto the "global common" of the high seas. In this context, cooperative management can be difficult to achieve and sustain, even in a stable oceanic environment. It is doubly difficult when sudden and unexpected climatic shifts occur, such as instances of the Pacific Ocean El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena. The project's activities consist of several interrelated components. The empirical component, led by NCAR personnel, will produce a systematic comparative history of multinational management institutions for the world's tuna fisheries, highlighting specific issues and key relationships that are to be examined through the modeling. The complementary modeling activities, centered at the University of Montana, utilize game theoretic concepts, and are realized through dynamic mathematical and computer-based analysis. The "incomplete-information multilateral fish-war model" focuses on cases of decentralized but coordinated management, where the climatic regime shifts have asymmetric effects and the parties differ in their access to information and in their goals and attitudes toward risk. The component on "modeling coalition formation and stability in multilateral fisheries management" will examine the internal politics of alternative multilateral governance arrangements, the entry and exit of nation states from the joint governing body, the endogenous formation of voting coalitions within the body, and of "spillover effects" among coalitions. Finally, in an "integrative phase" the full research team will examine the implications of the modeling results for each empirical case study, both to better understand historical patterns and to evaluate alternative, potentially more robust, cooperative management arrangements. The goal here is to make this work more fully relevant to policy studies.

这项合作研究的目标是解决在不稳定的气候环境下实现跨国海洋渔业稳定和互利管理的问题。具体而言，该研究将审查在环境不确定性存在的情况下联合管理商业捕捞的跨境鱼类种群的替代制度安排的有效性和稳健性。 该项目将重点关注预测不佳的海洋环境变化所造成的破坏性影响，包括突然的气候状况变化，并将解决提高可预测性的价值。 众所周知，不协调的捕捞往往会导致过度捕捞和鱼类资源枯竭，从而产生破坏性的生物和经济影响。 当鱼类资源跨越国家管辖边界，特别是进入公海的“全球公域”时，这也成为一个跨国政治问题。 在这种情况下，即使在稳定的海洋环境中，合作管理也很难实现和维持。 当突然和意想不到的气候变化发生时，例如太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的实例，这就更加困难。 该项目的活动由几个相互关联的部分组成。 由 NCAR 人员领导的实证部分将产生世界金枪鱼渔业跨国管理机构的系统比较历史，突出需要通过模型研究的具体问题和关键关系。 以蒙大拿大学为中心的补充建模活动利用博弈论概念，并通过动态数学和计算机分析来实现。 “不完全信息的多边鱼战模型”侧重于分散但协调管理的情况，其中气候状况的变化具有不对称的影响，各方在获取信息、目标和对风险的态度方面存在差异。 “多边渔业管理中的联盟形成和稳定性建模”部分将研究替代多边治理安排的内部政治、民族国家进入和退出联合管理机构、机构内投票联盟的内生形成以及联盟之间的“溢出效应”。 最后，在“整合阶段”，整个研究团队将检查建模结果对每个实证案例研究的影响，以便更好地理解历史模式并评估替代的、可能更稳健的合作管理安排。 这里的目标是使这项工作与政策研究更充分地相关。