Collaborative Research: Sustaining Cooperative Multinational Management of Marine Fisheries in the Face of Environmental Variability

这项合作研究的目标是解决在不稳定的气候环境中实现对多国海洋渔业的稳定和互利管理的问题。具体地说，该研究将审查在存在环境不确定性的情况下，联合管理商业捕捞的跨界鱼类种群的替代体制安排的有效性和稳健性。该项目将侧重于预测不佳的海洋环境变化的破坏性影响，包括气候制度的突然变化，并将解决提高可预测性的价值。众所周知，不协调捕捞往往会导致过度捕捞和鱼类资源枯竭，具有破坏性的生物和经济影响。当鱼类种群跨越国家管辖范围，特别是公海的“全球共同”时，这也成为一个多国政治问题。在这种情况下，即使在稳定的海洋环境中，合作管理也很难实现和维持。当突然和意想不到的气候变化发生时，例如太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的例子，就加倍困难。该项目的活动由几个相互关联的组成部分组成。由NCAR人员牵头的经验部分将产生世界金枪鱼渔业多国管理机构的系统比较历史，突出将通过建模审查的具体问题和关键关系。互补的建模活动以蒙大拿大学为中心，利用博弈论的概念，通过动态数学和基于计算机的分析来实现。“不完全信息多边鱼战模式”侧重于分散但协调管理的情况，在这种情况下，气候制度的变化具有不对称的影响，各方在获取信息以及对风险的目标和态度上存在差异。关于“多边渔业管理中联盟的形成和稳定的模型”的部分将审查替代多边治理安排的内部政治、民族国家加入和退出联合理事机构、机构内有投票权的联盟的内生形成以及联盟之间的“溢出效应”。最后，在“综合阶段”，整个研究小组将审查模拟结果对每个经验案例研究的影响，以更好地理解历史模式，并评估替代的、可能更稳健的合作管理安排。这里的目标是使这项工作与政策研究更充分地相关。

The goal of this collaborative research is to address the question of achieving stable and mutually beneficial management of multinational marine fisheries in an unstable climatic environment. Specifically the study will examine the effectiveness and robustness of alternative institutional arrangements for joint management of commercially harvested trans-boundary fish stocks in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The project will focus on the disruptive effects of poorly predicted oceanic environmental variability, including sudden climatic regime shifts, and will address the value of improved predictability. It is well known that uncoordinated fishing often will lead to over-harvesting and fish stock depletion, with destructive biological and economic implications. It becomes also a multinational political question when the fish stock ranges across national jurisdictional boundaries, and especially onto the "global common" of the high seas. In this context, cooperative management can be difficult to achieve and sustain, even in a stable oceanic environment. It is doubly difficult when sudden and unexpected climatic shifts occur, such as instances of the Pacific Ocean El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena. The project's activities consist of several interrelated components. The empirical component, led by NCAR personnel, will produce a systematic comparative history of multinational management institutions for the world's tuna fisheries, highlighting specific issues and key relationships that are to be examined through the modeling. The complementary modeling activities, centered at the University of Montana, utilize game theoretic concepts, and are realized through dynamic mathematical and computer-based analysis. The "incomplete-information multilateral fish-war model" focuses on cases of decentralized but coordinated management, where the climatic regime shifts have asymmetric effects and the parties differ in their access to information and in their goals and attitudes toward risk. The component on "modeling coalition formation and stability in multilateral fisheries management" will examine the internal politics of alternative multilateral governance arrangements, the entry and exit of nation states from the joint governing body, the endogenous formation of voting coalitions within the body, and of "spillover effects" among coalitions. Finally, in an "integrative phase" the full research team will examine the implications of the modeling results for each empirical case study, both to better understand historical patterns and to evaluate alternative, potentially more robust, cooperative management arrangements. The goal here is to make this work more fully relevant to policy studies.