Modelling the impact of global warming on the trophic state of the upper ocean

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The main aim of the proposed research is a quantitative evaluation of the potential impact of global warming on the trophic balance of the upper ocean. Primary production, as well as autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are all expected to increase with temperature, and a number of experimental culture studies suggest that the increase with temperature is more pronounced for respiration than for production. This notion has been further confirmed on the ecosystem level in recent short-term mesocosm studies. According to these results, an expected direct effect of global warming is a weakening of the biological carbon pump. In contrast to indirect effects arising from changes in circulation and stratification, such a direct temperature effect has not yet been investigated quantitatively on a global scale. Using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity, the proposed study will investigate the sensitivity of the model’s biological pump to different parameterisations of temperature effects on autotrophic and heterotrophic processes, each calibrated by available experimental data from culture and mesocosm studies. The ability of different parameterisations to closely reproduce regional patterns of biogeochemical tracer distributions will first be evaluated for pre-industrial steady-state solutions. In a second step, the model will be forced with IPCC-type CO2 emission scenarios over the 21st century in order to estimate the impact of direct temperature effects on the marine biota relative to indirect effects via changes in circulation and stratification.