Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics

计算理论的概率，其中这些概率随着宏观经济学的应用而随时间变化

• 批准号: DP0987170
• 负责人: Prof Rodney Strachan
• 金额: $ 16.64万
• 依托单位: The Australian National University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2009-01-01 至 2012-06-14
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0987170
• 关键词: Computing; probabilities; theories; where; these

This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.

该项目将提出一种方法，以产生基于经验的政策建议，说明不断变化的经济环境，并允许一系列关于经济如何运作的假设。研究和培训将使澳大利亚处于实证宏观经济研究的前沿，并加强国际研究网络。政策制定将得到改进，因为它将使用更可靠的信息来应对错误的假设;它将迅速纳入新信息;我们将更好地理解为什么某些政策在过去的不同时期奏效或不奏效。这项研究将对物理学和工程学等其他使用相同基础工具的科学产生影响，远远超过经济学家。