Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics

本项目将提出一种方法，以产生基于经验的政策建议，这些建议考虑到不断变化的经济环境，并允许对经济如何运行进行一系列假设。这些研究和培训将使澳大利亚处于实证宏观经济研究的前沿，并加强国际研究网络。政策制定将得到改进，因为它将使用对错误假设更可靠的信息；它会迅速吸收新信息；我们将更好地理解为什么某些政策在过去的不同时期起作用或不起作用。这项研究将对其他科学产生影响，如使用相同基础工具的物理学和工程学，远远超过经济学家。

This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.