Travel Time Route Reliability

本研究的目标是开发模型，提供旅行时间的可靠性估计为一个给定的路线作为故障的概率在每个路段的路线的函数。最终产品将是用于估计O和D之间的旅行时间将在X和Y秒之间的概率的模型，作为路线内的需求（假设是给定的）的函数。该项目的目标是：a）开发各种高速公路路段类型（如合并路口，分流路口等）的故障分布概率。B）获得每个路段的行程时间分布，作为该路段处故障概率的函数。c）获得路线的旅行时间可靠性模型，作为每个路段故障概率的函数，考虑路段之间的时间和空间相互作用。这些相互作用将使用随机过程技术建模。路线选择建模超出了本项目的范围;需求是开发模型的输入。d）提高研究团队中两个工程系学生的教育经验：土木工程和工业工程。这将通过在研究的基础上开发联合案例研究和项目来实现。该项目将提供工具，以改善交通机构的拥堵管理和公路绩效监测职能。它将导致更好地了解在一条路线上的拥堵发生的过程，研究结果将有助于交通从业者减少故障（和拥堵）的概率，并改善交通运营。该项目的研究和教育活动将为教师和学生在运筹学，可靠性和运输领域的跨学科合作提供机会。 该项目还将提供跨学科研究的机会，并与费城交通管理中心（TMC）的从业人员一起参与，该中心将为该项目提供数据。费城TMC工作人员和宾夕法尼亚州立大学的教师和学生之间的互动增加将有利于双方组织，因为他们在国家的实践和国家的最先进的知识交流。在这个项目中开发的方法最终可以用于规划和工作区的设计，在特殊事件（如音乐会，体育赛事等），制定紧急疏散计划。

The goal of this research is to develop models that provide travel time reliability estimates for a given route as a function of the probability of breakdown at each segment of the route. The final product will be models to estimate the probability that the travel time between O and D will be between X and Y seconds, as a function of the demands (assumed to be given) within the route. The objectives of the project are to:a) Develop probability of breakdown distributions for various freeway segment types (such as merge junctions, diverge junctions, etc.)b) Obtain travel time distributions for each segment as a function of the probability of breakdown at that segment. c) Obtain travel time reliability models for the route, as a function of the probability of breakdown at each of its segments, considering the temporal and spatial interactions between segments. These interactions will be modeled using stochastic processes techniques. Route choice modeling is outside the scope of this project; demand is an input to the models developed.d) Enhance the educational experience of students in the two engineering departments represented in the research team: civil engineering and industrial engineering. This will be accomplished by developing joint case studies and projects based on the research. This project will provide tools for improving the congestion management and highway performance monitoring functions of transportation agencies. It will result in better understanding the process of congestion occurrence on a route, and the findings will assist transportation practitioners in reducing the probability of breakdown (and congestion) and in improving traffic operations. The research and educational activities of the project will provide opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration of both faculty and students in the areas of operations research, reliability and transportation. The project will also provide opportunities for interdisciplinary research and involvement with practitioners from the Philadelphia Traffic Management Center (TMC), which will provide data for this project. Increased interactions between the Philadelphia TMC staff and the Penn State faculty and students will benefit both organizations as they exchange knowledge in the state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art.The methodology developed in this project can ultimately be used in the planning and design of work-zones, operations during special events (such as concerts, athletic events, etc.), and in developing emergency evacuation plans.