Travel Time Route Reliability

本研究的目标是开发模型，提供给定路线的旅行时间可靠性估计，作为路线每段故障概率的函数。最终的产品将是模型来估计从O到D之间的旅行时间在X到Y秒之间的概率，作为路线内需求的函数（假设是给定的）。该项目的目标是：a)开发各种高速公路路段类型（如合并路口、分流路口等）的故障分布概率b)获得每个路段的旅行时间分布，作为该路段故障概率的函数。c)考虑路段间的时空相互作用，得到该路段的行车时间可靠性模型，该模型以各路段故障概率为函数。这些相互作用将使用随机过程技术进行建模。路线选择建模不在本项目的范围之内；需求是所开发模型的输入。d)提升研究团队中土木工程和工业工程两个工程系学生的教育体验。这将通过在研究的基础上开展联合案例研究和项目来实现。该项目将为改善交通机构的拥堵管理和公路性能监测功能提供工具。这将使人们更好地了解路线上拥堵发生的过程，研究结果将有助于交通从业者减少故障（和拥堵）的可能性，并改善交通运营。该项目的研究和教育活动将为教师和学生在运筹学、可靠性和运输领域的跨学科合作提供机会。该项目还将为费城交通管理中心（TMC）的从业者提供跨学科研究和参与的机会，该中心将为该项目提供数据。费城医学管理中心的工作人员与宾夕法尼亚州立大学的教职员工和学生之间增加的互动将使双方都受益，因为他们在实践中交流了最先进的知识。本项目开发的方法最终可用于工作区域的规划和设计、特殊事件（如音乐会、体育赛事等）期间的操作以及制定紧急疏散计划。

The goal of this research is to develop models that provide travel time reliability estimates for a given route as a function of the probability of breakdown at each segment of the route. The final product will be models to estimate the probability that the travel time between O and D will be between X and Y seconds, as a function of the demands (assumed to be given) within the route. The objectives of the project are to:a) Develop probability of breakdown distributions for various freeway segment types (such as merge junctions, diverge junctions, etc.)b) Obtain travel time distributions for each segment as a function of the probability of breakdown at that segment. c) Obtain travel time reliability models for the route, as a function of the probability of breakdown at each of its segments, considering the temporal and spatial interactions between segments. These interactions will be modeled using stochastic processes techniques. Route choice modeling is outside the scope of this project; demand is an input to the models developed.d) Enhance the educational experience of students in the two engineering departments represented in the research team: civil engineering and industrial engineering. This will be accomplished by developing joint case studies and projects based on the research. This project will provide tools for improving the congestion management and highway performance monitoring functions of transportation agencies. It will result in better understanding the process of congestion occurrence on a route, and the findings will assist transportation practitioners in reducing the probability of breakdown (and congestion) and in improving traffic operations. The research and educational activities of the project will provide opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration of both faculty and students in the areas of operations research, reliability and transportation. The project will also provide opportunities for interdisciplinary research and involvement with practitioners from the Philadelphia Traffic Management Center (TMC), which will provide data for this project. Increased interactions between the Philadelphia TMC staff and the Penn State faculty and students will benefit both organizations as they exchange knowledge in the state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art.The methodology developed in this project can ultimately be used in the planning and design of work-zones, operations during special events (such as concerts, athletic events, etc.), and in developing emergency evacuation plans.