Collaborative Research: College Choice and the Texas 10% Policy

本研究调查了1996年Hopwood判决（Hopwood诉德克萨斯大学78 F.3d 932, 944 (5th Cir)）禁止平权法案后，根据前10%法律（H.B.588）做出计划和决定的德克萨斯州高中生的大学选择。虽然大多数关于百分比计划影响的研究都集中在使用行政记录的机构多样化上，但H.B. 588是否增加了黑人和西班牙裔学生的申请和入学概率尚不清楚。这个项目将分析种族和民族在大学选择上的差异，使用一项定制的、具有统计代表性的调查，调查对象是在平权法案后的百分比计划制度下制定大学计划的德克萨斯州高中二年级和四年级学生。从大约14K名高年级学生和19K名二年级学生的基线调查中，随机子样本（分别为N = 6K和3K）将随着时间的推移被跟踪——高年级学生在高中毕业后至少六年，二年级学生至少在高中毕业后一年。统计分析将涉及大学选择过程的各个方面（申请、录取和注册），包括推迟决定、提前退学或转学行为。将特别关注前10%的法律和班级排名对大学决策的影响。在方法上，研究设计避免了基于参与者的研究固有的选择偏差，通过描绘全面的中学后选择，包括兼职入学和间歇性参与以及工作和军事选择。该项目更广泛的影响包括：实际上，分析将解决与政策相关的问题，这些问题目前是意识形态辩论的主题，例如，来自最具竞争力的高中的高素质学生是否因为排名低于保证录取门槛而离开该州，或者学生是否转高中以提高他们的排名。这项研究将引起研究人员和政策制定者的兴趣，他们希望将“学校效应”与其他影响学生成绩的因素区分开来。最后，通过一项旨在了解高中生如何看待和回应前10%法律的调查，该研究将促进对排名靠前的少数族裔学生（百分比计划立法的预期受益者）是否与非少数族裔学生一样充分利用大学选择的理解。

This research investigates college choice for Texas high school students who made their plans and decisions under the top 10 percent law (H.B.588) after affirmative action was judicially banned by the 1996 Hopwood decision [Hopwood v. University of Texas 78 F.3d 932, 944 (5th Cir.)]. Although most studies of the impact of percent plans focus on institutional diversification using administrative records, whether H.B. 588 increased application and matriculation probabilities of black and Hispanic students is unclear. This project will analyze racial and ethnic differences in college choice using a customized, statistically representative survey of Texas high school sophomores and seniors who made their college plans in the post-affirmative action, percent-plan regime. From the baseline surveys of approximately 14K seniors and 19K sophomores, random subsamples (N = 6K and 3K, respectively) will be followed over time--the seniors for at least six years post high school graduation and the sophomores at least through their senior year. The statistical analyses will address various facets of the college choice process (application, admission, and enrollment), including postponement decisions, and early withdrawal or transfer behavior. Special attention will be devoted to the influence of the top 10% law and class rank on college decision-making. Methodologically, the study design avoids the selection biases inherent in studies based on enrollees by portraying the full range of post-secondary school choices, including part-time enrollment and intermittent participation as well as work and military options. The project's broader impacts include: Practically, the analyses will address policy-relevant questions that currently are the subject of ideological debate, such as whether highly qualified students from the most competitive high schools are leaving the state because they rank below the guaranteed admission threshold, or whether students transfer high schools to improve their rank standing. The study will be of interest to researchers and policymakers interested in untangling "school effects" from other factors contributing to student outcomes. Finally, by building on a survey tailored to learn about how high school students perceive and respond to the top 10 percent law, the study will advance understanding of whether high ranked minority students, the intended beneficiaries of the percent plan legislation, take advantage of their college options to the same extent as nonminority students.