Empirical Methods for Measuring Market Performance in Network Industries

这项研究将设计和实施技术来衡量电力和邮政递送服务行业的市场表现。我将对电力批发市场的表现进行四个方面的调查。首先，我计划应用Borenstein，Bushnell and Wolak(2002)和Wolak(2003 B)中提出的衡量电力供应行业市场表现的方法，为加州电力危机的原因和解决方案提供全面的诊断。我收集了许多新的数据集，这将使我能够对加州电力危机的原因和补救措施进行更全面的分析。第二个项目将采用这两种方法来衡量市场范围和公司层面的市场力量(或市场低效)，以适应使用位置边际定价程序对电力定价的批发市场。第三个主题是如何评估在批发市场体制下传输网络升级的净收益。输电网络的扩展有可能提高电力批发市场的竞争力，因为它们可以增加独立供应商的数量，从而能够与每个当地供应商竞争。我不知道有一种内部一致的方法来评估变速器升级，以考虑到这些市场力量缓解的好处。2003年8月14日和15日美国东部的停电表明，这种方法早就应该采取了。第四条调查线将研究当日远期市场与实时市场的整合程度。在美国所有的批发市场，电力在交货前在许多远期市场进行交易。如果能源交易员是风险中性的，那么在这些市场之间应该存在许多套利关系，如果能源交易员是规避风险的，那么应该保持一套不同的关系。这项研究将得出这些关系，并检验它们之间的相关性。美国邮政服务(USPS)在过去两年中经历了相当大的金融动荡。单件一级邮件是美国邮政局投递的数量最大的邮件类别，在二战后，需求第一次经历了十年的下降。这导致美国邮政总局实施了多次费率上调，以弥补这些销量下降造成的收入损失。美国邮政总局还为其邮件分拣设施的工人制定了全国统一的工资政策。这导致了不同邮件分拣设施的工人生产率存在很大差异。使用从美国邮政费率委员会获得的数据集，我将首先记录各个设施在员工生产率方面的差异程度，并量化其全国性工资政策对美国邮政服务公司的成本。这一分析应该为美国邮政总局降低邮政运营成本的决策过程提供有用的信息。我还计划在多个方向上扩展我先前关于邮政递送服务的电子替代品和邮政后价格上涨对家庭一级邮政递送服务需求的影响的研究。

This research will devise and implement techniques for measuring market performance in the electricity and postal delivery services industries. I will undertake four lines of inquiry measuringperformance in wholesale electricity markets. First, I plan to apply the methodologies for measuring marketperformance in the electricity supply industry presented in Borenstein, Bushnell and Wolak (2002) andWolak (2003b) to provide a comprehensive diagnosis of the causes and solution to the California electricitycrisis. I have collected a number of new data sets that will allow me to perform a more comprehensiveanalysis of the causes and remedy for the California electricity crisis. The second project will adapt thesetwo methodologies for measuring market-wide and firm-level market power (or market inefficiencies) towholesale markets that use locational marginal pricing procedures to price electricity. The third topic is howto value the net benefits of transmission network upgrades in a wholesale market regime. Transmissionnetwork expansions have the potential to increase the competitiveness of a wholesale electricity marketbecause they can increase the number of independent suppliers able to compete with each local supplier. Iam not aware of an internally consistent methodology for valuing transmission upgrades that accounts forthese market power mitigation benefits. The power outage in the eastern U.S. on August 14 and 15, 2003,suggests that such a methodology is far overdue. The fourth line of inquiry will study the extent integrationof day-ahead forward markets with the real-time market. In all U.S. wholesale markets, electricity is tradedin a number of forward markets in advance of delivery. There are a number of arbitrage relationships thatshould hold between these markets if energy traders are risk-neutral, and a different set of relationships thatshould hold if energy traders are risk-averse. This research will derive these relationships and examine theirempirical relevance.The US Postal Service (USPS) has experienced considerable financial turmoil over the past twoyears. For the first time in the post World War II period, the demand for single piece First-Class mail, thelargest volume category of mail that the USPS delivers, has experienced a decade of decline. This has causedthe USPS to implement a number of rate increases to recover lost revenue from these volume decreases. TheUSPS also has nationwide uniform wage policy for workers in its mail sorting facilities. This has resultedin substantial differences in worker productivity across mail sorting facilities. This using a dataset obtainedfrom the United States Postal Rate Commission, I will first document the extent of across-facility differencesin worker productivity and quantify the cost to the USPS of its nationwide wage policy. This analysis shouldprovide useful input into the USPS decision-making process for reducing postal operating costs. I also planto extend my previous research on the impact of electronic alternatives to postal delivery services and postalprice increases on the household-level demand for postal delivery services in a number of directions.