Synoptic-Dynamic Studies of Atmospheric Predictability

在本研究中，研究者将从现象学的角度探讨大气可预测性和预测技能的问题。可预测性将根据可操作的全球数值天气预报模式的能力来分析和解释，以预测高影响天气系统的演变，这些系统所嵌入的大尺度气流，以及与选定天气系统的演变相结合的大尺度气流系统之间的过渡。在从高分辨率集合预报中采集的样本中，将诊断两种类型的相互作用的案例研究：热带-温带相互作用和北极-温带相互作用。特别地，本研究将讨论在集合预报系统中不同的集合成员演化的物理方面。两名研究生将参与这个项目。这项研究的结果有望转化为对高影响天气事件的改进的长期展望和短期预报，从而有利于业务预报和社会活动。

In this study, the investigators will address the problem of atmospheric predictability and forecast skill from a phenomenological perspective. Predictability will be analyzed and interpreted in terms of the ability of operational global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the evolution of high-impact weather systems, the large-scale flows in which these are embedded, and the transitions between large-scale flow systems that occur in conjunction with the evolution of selected weather systems. In samples taken from high-resolution ensemble forecasts, case studies for two types of interactions will be diagnosed: tropical-extratropical interactions and arctic-extratropical interactions. In particular, this research will address the physical aspects of the different evolution of ensemble members in the ensemble forecast system. Two graduate students will be involved in this project. The results of this research are expected to translate into improved long-term outlooks and short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events, thereby benefiting operational forecasting and societal activities.