Forecasting Needs and Procedures for NEON: Process-based Modeling Workshop in July 2005 at the Marine Biological Lab in Woods Hole, MA

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A workshop will be held to bring together modelers and process-based ecologists to explore the role of ecological, economic, and sociological modeling in developing a capacity to make ecological forecasts. Process-based mathematical models are a key step in developing effective forecasts at regional to continental scales. It is unclear that current models can be readily adapted to these larger scales. The participants will explore the environmental/ecological modeling capacity and organization necessary to develop dynamical ecological forecasting from national observatory networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The anticipated intellectual impact will come from discussions of the opportunities to collaboratively and robustly address ecological forecasting challenges, particularly as it relates to the strengths and weaknesses of existing models. The workshop will provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate current modeling capacity and what is needed to transform current ecological modeling capabilities into "ecologically-based" ecological forecast models useful for environmental observatories such as NEON. The workshop will have broad impacts by defining a set of recommendations on the status of ecological modeling and what is needed to assure future generations of modelers and forecasters that can leverage the emergent frontiers, research opportunities, and unique infrastructure capacity that will arise from the environmental research observing systems and networks. In addition, the resulting reports will provide guidance on the planning, funding, implementation, coordination, and ultimate use of models and modelers to develop an ecological forecasting capacity.