Forecasting Needs and Procedures for NEON: Process-based Modeling Workshop in July 2005 at the Marine Biological Lab in Woods Hole, MA

将举办一个研讨会，汇集建模者和基于过程的生态学家，探讨生态、经济和社会学建模在发展生态预测能力方面的作用。基于过程的数学模型是开发区域到大陆尺度有效预报的关键步骤。目前尚不清楚的是，目前的模型能否适应这些更大的尺度。与会者将探讨从国家生态观测站网络（NEON）等国家观测站网络发展动态生态预报所需的环境/生态建模能力和组织。预期的智力影响将来自对合作和强有力地应对生态预测挑战的机会的讨论，特别是因为它与现有模型的优缺点有关。该研讨会将提供一个前所未有的机会来评估当前的建模能力，以及如何将当前的生态建模能力转化为对NEON等环境观测站有用的“基于生态的”生态预测模型。本次研讨会将对生态建模现状提出一系列建议，并就如何确保未来几代建模者和预测者能够利用环境研究观测系统和网络所产生的新兴前沿、研究机会和独特的基础设施能力提出建议，从而产生广泛的影响。此外，结果报告将为模型和建模者的规划、资助、实施、协调和最终使用提供指导，以发展生态预测能力。

A workshop will be held to bring together modelers and process-based ecologists to explore the role of ecological, economic, and sociological modeling in developing a capacity to make ecological forecasts. Process-based mathematical models are a key step in developing effective forecasts at regional to continental scales. It is unclear that current models can be readily adapted to these larger scales. The participants will explore the environmental/ecological modeling capacity and organization necessary to develop dynamical ecological forecasting from national observatory networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The anticipated intellectual impact will come from discussions of the opportunities to collaboratively and robustly address ecological forecasting challenges, particularly as it relates to the strengths and weaknesses of existing models. The workshop will provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate current modeling capacity and what is needed to transform current ecological modeling capabilities into "ecologically-based" ecological forecast models useful for environmental observatories such as NEON. The workshop will have broad impacts by defining a set of recommendations on the status of ecological modeling and what is needed to assure future generations of modelers and forecasters that can leverage the emergent frontiers, research opportunities, and unique infrastructure capacity that will arise from the environmental research observing systems and networks. In addition, the resulting reports will provide guidance on the planning, funding, implementation, coordination, and ultimate use of models and modelers to develop an ecological forecasting capacity.