Modelling spatial dynamics of vascular epiphytes(MODVE): modelling demography and spatial-temporal dynamics of vascular epiphytes, aiming their incorporation into forest dynamics' models.

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Despite increasing urge for ecological forecasts, especially due to environmental change, vascular epiphytes have been largely neglected in ecological modelling. This gap in our knowledge may be partially due to the difficulties inherent to investigating the epiphytic habit, which makes most surveys time-consuming, inaccurate and/or incomplete. Fortunately, recent research projects have gathered enough data to attempt the inclusion of vascular epiphytes into ecological modelling and forecasts. A long-term monitoring project in Panama offers a unique dataset that suits modelling demands for spatial and temporal high-quality data on epiphytic populations. Allied to this dataset, available models for the dynamics of tropical forest (model FORMIND) deliver a suitable simulation background. The combination of both forest models and vascular epiphyte datasets might ultimately enable the inclusion of vascular epiphytes into forecasts and the possibility to test hypothesis, to provide feedback to empiricists for collection of lacking data and to support appropriate conservation actions. Therefore, the present project aims to model the spatial-temporal variation of epiphytes, including demographic dynamics. The resulting models will have important applications to both theoretical and conservation ecology addressing important issues: “How do vascular epiphytes vary in space and time and to what extent is this variation related to abiotic changes or changes in forest dynamics?” and “How and to what extent are epiphytes able to react to environmental change?”.