Vulnerability of the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone to Changes in Drifting Ice

边缘冰带(MIZ)是北极最重要、最具活力的地貌之一。PIS将对向Miz输送海冰的过去如何变化以及未来可能发生的变化进行综合分析。利用海冰动力学模型和同期的大气场，并包括示踪剂，他们将跟踪海冰的起源和运输路径，以及密西西比河冰融化时物质的集中释放。然后，他们将利用政府间气候变化专门委员会的气候变化情景，将这一分析扩展到过去，研究全新世期间和未来的变化。他们将调查来自不同来源地区的冰混合进入北极内陆；评估来自不同来源地区的冰的年际和季节性变化如何影响，并可能在未来影响淡水、沉积物和生物材料的重新分配和输送。智力价值这项研究将现有数据的模型整合到一个新的框架中，即一个冰传送器，它将物质运输到北极盆地，并将其释放到环境敏感的Miz。通过这个项目，私人投资督察将审查：输送到不同密西西比河地区的冰的分布、来源和年龄随着时间的推移以及在关键季节，即春季开花期间发生了什么变化？冰流的变化如何影响淡水、沉积物和生物材料的输送？这些变化与观测到的大气、海洋、沉积和生态条件的变化有什么关系？区域和水深方面的变化是如何变化的？例如，何时在弗拉姆海峡中部的深水和西部的格陵兰浅水陆架上出现最大的冰融化--因此物质释放？我们预计未来冰的分布、起源、年龄和混合流量会有什么变化？这些变化可能会产生什么影响？

The marginal ice zone (MIZ) is one of the most important and dynamic features in the Arctic. The PIs will conduct an integrated analysis of how delivery of sea ice to the MIZ changed in the past and what changes might be in store in the future. Using a sea ice dynamic model forced with contemporaneous atmospheric fields and including tracers, they will track the origin and transport pathways of sea ice, and the focused release of material from ice melting in the MIZ. They will then extend this analysis back into the past, to examine changes during the Holocene, and into the future, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change scenarios. They will investigate mixing of ice from different source areas into the Arctic interior; and assess how interannual and seasonal variability in ice from different source regions has influenced, and may influence in the future, redistribution and delivery of freshwater, sediments and biological material.Intellectual MeritThis research integrates models with existing data into a new framework, that of an ice conveyor which transports material across the Arctic basin and releases it in the environmentally sensitive MIZ. Through this project the PIs will examine:. How has the distribution, origin, and age of ice delivered to various MIZ regions changed over time, and during critical seasons, i.e. the spring bloom?. How have changes in ice drift influenced the delivery of freshwater, sediments, and biological material? How are these changes related to observed changes in atmospheric,oceanic, sedimentologic, and ecologic conditions?. How have changes varied regionally and with respect to water depth? For example, when does maximum ice melt - and therefore material release - occur over deep waters of central Fram Strait vs. over the shallow Greenland Shelf in western Fram Strait?. What changes in the distribution, origin, age, and MIZ flux of ice might we expect in the future? What might be the impact of these changes?