Vulnerability of the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone to Changes in Drifting Ice

边缘冰带是北极最重要的动态特征之一。pi将对过去向MIZ输送海冰的变化以及未来可能发生的变化进行综合分析。使用海冰动力学模型强迫与同期大气场和包括示踪剂，他们将跟踪海冰的起源和运输途径，并从MIZ冰融化集中释放的物质。然后，他们将把这一分析扩展到过去，研究全新世期间的变化，并利用政府间气候变化专门委员会的气候变化情景，研究未来的变化。他们将调查来自不同来源的冰在北极内部的混合情况；并评估来自不同来源区域的冰的年际和季节变化如何影响并可能在未来影响淡水、沉积物和生物材料的再分配和输送。这项研究将模型与现有数据整合到一个新的框架中，即一个冰输送机，它将物质输送到北极盆地，并将其释放到环境敏感的MIZ。通过这个项目，pi将检查：。冰的分布、来源和输送到各个MIZ地区的年龄是如何随着时间和关键季节（如春季开花）而变化的？冰漂的变化如何影响淡水、沉积物和生物物质的输送？这些变化与观测到的大气、海洋、沉积和生态条件的变化有何关系？变化在区域和水深方面是如何变化的？例如，在弗拉姆海峡中部的深水区和在弗拉姆海峡西部的格陵兰浅水架上，什么时候发生最大的冰融化——从而释放出物质？未来冰的分布、起源、年龄和MIZ通量会有什么变化？这些变化可能会产生什么影响？

The marginal ice zone (MIZ) is one of the most important and dynamic features in the Arctic. The PIs will conduct an integrated analysis of how delivery of sea ice to the MIZ changed in the past and what changes might be in store in the future. Using a sea ice dynamic model forced with contemporaneous atmospheric fields and including tracers, they will track the origin and transport pathways of sea ice, and the focused release of material from ice melting in the MIZ. They will then extend this analysis back into the past, to examine changes during the Holocene, and into the future, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change scenarios. They will investigate mixing of ice from different source areas into the Arctic interior; and assess how interannual and seasonal variability in ice from different source regions has influenced, and may influence in the future, redistribution and delivery of freshwater, sediments and biological material.Intellectual MeritThis research integrates models with existing data into a new framework, that of an ice conveyor which transports material across the Arctic basin and releases it in the environmentally sensitive MIZ. Through this project the PIs will examine:. How has the distribution, origin, and age of ice delivered to various MIZ regions changed over time, and during critical seasons, i.e. the spring bloom?. How have changes in ice drift influenced the delivery of freshwater, sediments, and biological material? How are these changes related to observed changes in atmospheric,oceanic, sedimentologic, and ecologic conditions?. How have changes varied regionally and with respect to water depth? For example, when does maximum ice melt - and therefore material release - occur over deep waters of central Fram Strait vs. over the shallow Greenland Shelf in western Fram Strait?. What changes in the distribution, origin, age, and MIZ flux of ice might we expect in the future? What might be the impact of these changes?