US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Synthesis of Biophysical Observations at Multiple Trophic Levels Using Spatially Nested, Data-assimilating Models of the Coastal Gulf of Alaska

除了东北太平洋(NEP)阿拉斯加湾(CGOA)GLOBEC计划更加集中的目标外，这个核心的回溯性模拟和数据同化项目还涉及广泛的GLOBEC计划目标。这项工作旨在阐明影响CGOA中多种营养水平(浮游植物、浮游动物和粉红鲑鱼)观测产量的机制。具体目标是：(1)量化CGOA的物理特征和与气候变化有关的可变性如何影响浮游动物的生物量、生产、分布以及沿海地区浮游动物的留存和丧失；(2)量化淡水径流和跨陆架运输等沿海关键物理和生物过程的影响；(3)比较CGOA中气候多变性和变化(例如厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜周期和制度变化)对海洋动物种群(粉鲑鱼)的影响。耦合模式使用先进的数据同化技术来产生最佳的合并数据/模式产品，这些产品将在线交付给GLOBEC NEP-CGOA合成工作使用。最终产品包括：1)通过显式的、基于伴随的3D物理数据同化到嵌套环流模式中合成GLOBEC-CGOA现场数据；2)将这些改进的环流场应用于低营养层(NPZ)模拟，其中包括鲑鱼猎物；3)开发联合环流-NPZ模式的伴随版本，用于正式探索导出的指数对强迫函数的敏感性；4)生产具有显著年际气候变异性的年份的物理、NPZ和鲑鱼后遗症，在线提供给其他GLOBEC综合研究计划和模式使用；5)生产基于个体的粉红色鲑鱼模型的环流和捕食场；6)实施粉红色鲑鱼的欧拉模式和其他NPZ组件；7)利用伴随技术将CGOA生物场数据同化到1D NPZ模式中；8)开发适用于东北太平洋的NPZ模式，以检验对气候变化的响应的空间模式；9)利用在线、交互、身临其境的显示技术对欧拉和拉格朗日模式的结果进行可视化。数据同化和后播活动将有利于NOAA的渔业和环境(FATE)计划，该计划关注CGOA中的有效生物物理指数和其他渔业海洋学计划，这些项目需要准确的循环和NPZ后向预测以进行回顾研究。数据同化和敏感性问题将为阿拉斯加海洋观测系统(Aoos)计划做出贡献。多名博士生科学家和学生将接受培训。将通过新的可视化技术进行教育推广，以显示3D模型结果。

This core retrospective modeling and data assimilation project addresses broad GLOBEC program goals, in addition to the more tightly focused aims of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) GLOBEC program in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). This work aims to elucidate mechanisms that influence the observed production at multiple trophic levels (phytoplankton, zooplankton, and pink salmon) in the CGOA. Specific goals are to: (i) quantify how physical features in the CGOA and variability related to climate change impact zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, and the retention and loss of zooplankton from coastal regions; (ii) quantify the impact of key coastal physical and biological processes, such as freshwater runoff and cross-shelf transport; and (iii) compare the impacts of climate variability and change (such as El Nino-La Nina cycles and regime shifts) on marine animal populations (pink salmon) in the CGOA. The coupled models employ advanced data assimilation techniques to produce optimal merged data/model products, which will be delivered online for use by the GLOBEC NEP-CGOA synthesis effort.End-products include: 1) Synthesis of GLOBEC-CGOA field data through explicit, adjoint based, 3D physical data assimilation into nested circulation models; 2) Application of these improved circulation fields to lower trophic level (NPZ) simulations which include salmon prey items; 3) Development of an adjoint version of the combined circulation-NPZ model, for formal exploration of the sensitivities of derived indices to forcing functions; 4) Production of physical, NPZ, and salmon hindcasts of years with significant interannual climate variability, delivered online for use by other GLOBEC synthesis research programs and models; 5) Production of circulation and prey fields for an Individual-Based Model of pink salmon; 6) Implementation of an Eulerian model of pink salmon with other NPZ components; 7) Assimilation of CGOA biological field data into 1D NPZ models with adjoint techniques; 8) Development of an NPZ model suitable for the Northeast Pacific, to examine spatial patterns of response to climate variability; 9) Visualization of Eulerian and Lagrangian model results with online, interactive, immersive display technologies.The data assimilation and hindcast activities will benefit NOAA's Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, which is concerned with effective biophysical indices and other Fisheries Oceanography programs in the CGOA which require accurate circulation and NPZ hindcasts for retrospective studies. The data assimilation and sensitivity issues will contribute to the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) program. Multiple Ph.D. scientists and students will be trained. Educational outreach will take place via novel visualization techniques to display 3D model results.