US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Synthesis of Biophysical Observations at Multiple Trophic Levels Using Spatially Nested, Data-assimilating Models of the Coastal Gulf of Alaska

除了东北太平洋（NEP）阿拉斯加沿海湾（CGOA） GLOBEC项目的更紧密的目标外，该核心回顾性建模和数据同化项目还解决了广泛的GLOBEC项目目标。本研究旨在阐明影响CGOA中多种营养水平（浮游植物、浮游动物和粉鲑鱼）观察到的产量的机制。具体目标是：(i)量化CGOA的物理特征和与气候变化有关的变率如何影响沿海地区浮游动物的生物量、生产、分布以及浮游动物的保留和损失；量化主要沿海物理和生物过程的影响，例如淡水径流和跨大陆架运输；（iii）比较气候变率和变化（如厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜周期和制度转变）对CGOA海洋动物种群（粉红鲑鱼）的影响。耦合模型采用先进的数据同化技术来产生最佳的合并数据/模型产品，这些产品将在线提供给GLOBEC NEP-CGOA综合工作使用。最终产品包括：1)通过明确的、基于伴随的三维物理数据同化到嵌套环流模型中，综合globecc - cgoa现场数据；2)将这些改进的循环场应用于低营养水平（NPZ）模拟，包括鲑鱼猎物项目；3)开发了联合环流- npz模式的伴随版本，以正式探索衍生指标对强迫函数的敏感性；4)生产具有显著年际气候变率的年份的物理、NPZ和鲑鱼预测数据，在线交付供其他GLOBEC综合研究项目和模型使用；5)基于个体的粉鲑模型的循环场和猎物场生产；6)实现了含有其他NPZ成分的粉鲑鱼欧拉模型；7)利用伴随技术将CGOA生物场数据同化为1D NPZ模型；(8)建立适合东北太平洋的NPZ模式，考察其对气候变率响应的空间格局；9)利用在线、交互式、沉浸式显示技术实现欧拉和拉格朗日模型结果的可视化。数据同化和预测活动将有利于NOAA的渔业和环境（FATE）计划，该计划涉及有效的生物物理指数和CGOA的其他渔业海洋学计划，这些计划需要精确的环流和NPZ预测来进行回顾性研究。数据同化和敏感性问题将有助于阿拉斯加海洋观测系统（AOOS）计划。将培养多名博士科学家和学生。教育外展将通过新颖的可视化技术来显示3D模型结果。

This core retrospective modeling and data assimilation project addresses broad GLOBEC program goals, in addition to the more tightly focused aims of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) GLOBEC program in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). This work aims to elucidate mechanisms that influence the observed production at multiple trophic levels (phytoplankton, zooplankton, and pink salmon) in the CGOA. Specific goals are to: (i) quantify how physical features in the CGOA and variability related to climate change impact zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, and the retention and loss of zooplankton from coastal regions; (ii) quantify the impact of key coastal physical and biological processes, such as freshwater runoff and cross-shelf transport; and (iii) compare the impacts of climate variability and change (such as El Nino-La Nina cycles and regime shifts) on marine animal populations (pink salmon) in the CGOA. The coupled models employ advanced data assimilation techniques to produce optimal merged data/model products, which will be delivered online for use by the GLOBEC NEP-CGOA synthesis effort.End-products include: 1) Synthesis of GLOBEC-CGOA field data through explicit, adjoint based, 3D physical data assimilation into nested circulation models; 2) Application of these improved circulation fields to lower trophic level (NPZ) simulations which include salmon prey items; 3) Development of an adjoint version of the combined circulation-NPZ model, for formal exploration of the sensitivities of derived indices to forcing functions; 4) Production of physical, NPZ, and salmon hindcasts of years with significant interannual climate variability, delivered online for use by other GLOBEC synthesis research programs and models; 5) Production of circulation and prey fields for an Individual-Based Model of pink salmon; 6) Implementation of an Eulerian model of pink salmon with other NPZ components; 7) Assimilation of CGOA biological field data into 1D NPZ models with adjoint techniques; 8) Development of an NPZ model suitable for the Northeast Pacific, to examine spatial patterns of response to climate variability; 9) Visualization of Eulerian and Lagrangian model results with online, interactive, immersive display technologies.The data assimilation and hindcast activities will benefit NOAA's Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, which is concerned with effective biophysical indices and other Fisheries Oceanography programs in the CGOA which require accurate circulation and NPZ hindcasts for retrospective studies. The data assimilation and sensitivity issues will contribute to the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) program. Multiple Ph.D. scientists and students will be trained. Educational outreach will take place via novel visualization techniques to display 3D model results.