Collaborative Research: The Impact of Changes in Arctic Sea Ice on the Marine Planktonic Ecosystem- Synthesis and Modeling of Retrospective and Future Conditions

摘要近几十年来，北极气候发生了重大变化。其中最引人注目的是海冰的减少与大气环流的变化和地表气温的升高同时发生。这种北极变暖趋势可能会持续到未来，导致北极海冰覆盖减少，这将严重影响北极海洋生态系统，并最终影响北极和亚北极的人类社区。因此，了解海冰的变化如何影响海洋生态系统是至关重要的。为此，本工作将研究北极海冰、水柱和海洋生态系统作为一个整体的历史和当代变化，并在几种可能的变暖情景下预测与北极冰盖减少相关的未来变化。重点将放在海洋浮游生态系统上。科学目标是：1)综合1979年至今北极生物/冰/海洋系统的历史演变，了解这一时期海冰、上层海洋和海洋浮游生态系统发生的大规模变化。2)确定海冰、上层海洋和浮游生态系统之间的关键联系和相互作用，以了解海冰变化如何影响生物地球化学过程和食物网动态。3)在几种变暖情景下预估冰盖减少，以探索海冰减少或夏季无冰的北冰洋浮游生态系统的功能。这是一个两项任务的研究项目：回顾性调查和未来预测。第一项任务旨在综合和解释过去三十年来在北极海冰、上层海洋和海洋浮游生态系统中发生的大规模变化。第二个目的是从质量和数量上审查冰盖减少对海洋生态系统结构和功能的影响。为此，本小组将构建一个耦合的泛北极生物/冰/海洋模拟与同化系统（BIOMAS），用于综合和模拟北极冰盖、海洋和海洋浮游生态系统。BIOMAS将通过模型参数化/校准和数据同化来综合物理和生物观测。这一独特的系统是综合生物学/冰/海洋模拟和同化方面的一个重大进展，它将在年代际和泛北极尺度上提供冰覆盖变化对北极海洋浮游生态系统影响的最佳估计，无论是回顾性的还是预测性的。

AbstractSignificant changes in arctic climate have been detected in recent decades. One of the most striking is the decline of sea ice concurrent with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased surface air temperature. This arctic warming trend is likely to continue into the future, leading to a diminished arctic sea ice cover that will significantly impact the arctic marine ecosystem and ultimately arctic and subarctic human communities. It is therefore critical to understand how changes in sea ice influence the marine ecosystem. To this end, this work will investigate the historical and contemporary changes of arctic sea ice, water column, and aspects of the marine ecosystem as an integrated entity, and project future changes associated with a diminished arctic ice cover under several plausible warming scenarios. The focus will be on the marine planktonic ecosystem. The scientific objectives are:1) Synthesize the historical evolution of the arctic biology/ice/ocean system from 1979 to the present to understand the large-scale changes that have occurred in the sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem over this period.2) Identify key linkages and interactions between the sea ice, the upper ocean, and the planktonic ecosystem to understand how changes in sea ice affect biogeochemical processes and food-web dynamics.3) Project a diminished ice cover with several warming scenarios to explore the functioning of the planktonic ecosystem in an ice-diminished or summer ice-free Arctic Ocean.This is a two-task research project: retrospective investigations and future projections. The first task aims at synthesis and interpretation of the large-scale changes that have occurred in arctic sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystems over the past three decades. The second aims at qualitatively and quantitatively examining the impact of a diminished ice cover on the structure and functioning of the marine ecosystem. To achieve these, this group will construct a coupled pan-arctic Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS) for synthesis and modeling of the integrated arctic system of ice cover, ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem. BIOMAS will synthesize physical and biological observations through model parameterization/calibration and data assimilation. This unique system is a significant advance in integrated biology/ice/ocean modeling and assimilation that will provide the best possible estimates of the impact of changes in ice cover on the arctic marine planktonic ecosystem on decadal and pan-arctic scales, both retrospectively and predictively.