Collaborative Research: Leading Indicators of Regime Shift - an Ecosystem Experiment

自然界的许多变化是缓慢而渐进的，但有时广泛的变化发生得很快。干旱、牧场产量损失、渔业崩溃、有毒藻类大量繁殖以及疾病或入侵物种的爆发可能会迅速发生，对生物资源造成重大影响，并给社会带来巨大代价。如此巨大的变化很难预测。最近的理论进展表明，某些指标可以帮助在资源发生重大变化之前预测和管理这些变化。与领先的经济指标一样，这些领先的生态指标可以在重大转变之前观察到。到目前为止，这些理论还没有在实地得到验证。该项目将测试潜在的指标，通过实验引起湖泊食物链的巨大变化，同时使用现代传感器和信号处理技术在变化之前、期间和之后监测湖泊。该研究将评估这些指标的敏感性，以及它们是否可以用来提前发现大的变化。该项目将评估可能用于管理广泛生物资源的领先指标，同时测试关于自然界快速广泛变化的新理论。2009年秋季，我们将在麦迪逊举行的环境记者协会会议上为记者们举办一个关于快速环境变化的研讨会和实地考察。该项目将培训研究生和本科生，并为生态系统研究所、圣诺伯特学院和威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的课程提供教材。

Non-Technical Abstract Word count: 242Many changes in nature are slow and gradual, but sometimes extensive changes happen fast. Droughts, losses of production from rangelands, collapse of fisheries, toxic algae blooms, and outbreaks of disease or invasive species can occur rapidly, with significant impacts on living resources and large costs to society. Such big changes are difficult to forecast. Recent theoretical advances suggest that certain indicators can help foresee and manage big changes in resources before they occur. Like leading economic indicators, these leading ecological indicators can be observed before a big shift. So far these theories have not been tested in the field. This project will test potential indicators by experimentally inducing massive changes in the food chain of a lake, while monitoring the lake before, during and after the changes using modern sensor and signal processing technology. The research will evaluate the sensitivity of the indicators and whether they can be used to detect a large change in advance.The project will assess leading indicators that could potentially be used to manage a wide range of living resources, while at the same time testing new theory about rapid extensive changes in nature. We will present a workshop and field trip on rapid environmental change for journalists at the Society of Environmental Journalists meeting in Madison in fall 2009. The project will train graduate and undergraduate students and contribute teaching materials for courses at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies, St. Norbert College, and University of Wisconsin-Madison.