QEIB: Modeling Disturbances in Systems with Unidirectional Flow

生态学家面临的一个主要挑战是了解种群如何对自然环境中的干扰作出反应。数学模型可以通过为以前的实证工作增加价值和帮助确定未来研究的优先事项来促进这种理解。这项研究将发展新的理论，适用于溪流、河流和其他流向偏向一个方向的媒介中的植物和动物种群。该项目将重点关注三个问题。环境变化通过什么机制影响物种灭绝的可能性？河流流量对种群对干扰的反应有何短期影响？物种之间的相互作用如何影响种群和群落对环境压力的反应，比如流量的变化或营养物质的增加？新理论的实用性将通过实验溪流系统和自然河流的数据进行测试。这些发现将为环境管理者提供解决“溪流流量需求”这一关键问题的新方法：河流中的水流必须得到维持，以确保当地生物群的生存能力。将对博士后研究员、研究生以及生态学和数学本科生进行跨学科培训。

A major challenge for ecologists is to understand how populations respond to disturbances in their physical environment. Mathematical models can advance such understanding by giving added value to previous empirical work and helping identify priorities for future studies. This research will develop new theory applicable to plant and animal populations in streams, rivers, and other media where flow is biased in one direction. The project will focus on three questions. By what mechanisms does environmental variability impact the likelihood of extinctions? What is the short-term effect of river flow on population responses to disturbances? And how do interactions among species influence the response of populations and communities to environmental stress, such as changes in flow or addition of nutrients? The utility of the new theory will be tested using data from experimental stream systems, and also from a natural river.The findings will provide environmental mangers with new approaches to the critical issue of ''instream flow needs'': the flow of water in a river that must be maintained to ensure viability of resident biota. There will be cross-disciplinary training for a post-doctoral researcher, a graduate student, and for both ecology and mathematics undergraduates.