DRU Modeling Community Response and Economic Impacts of Risk Amplification Following a Terrorist Strike

本研究旨在模拟社区对恐怖袭击的行为反应的动态复杂性，并估计这种反应的经济影响。 应急系统、信息和通信渠道以及社会支助组织可能与恐怖事件的具体特点相互作用，放大或减弱这些影响。哪些因素对于充分预测灾害，特别是恐怖袭击的更广泛影响最为重要？如何将风险感知纳入预测区域或国家影响的经济模型？复原力（社区在震惊时维持功能的能力）如何影响对灾难性事件的预测反应？这些因素如何随着时间的推移而变化和相互作用，以及驱动这种变化的重要机制是什么，特别是系统反馈和延迟？性别、年龄、种族和收入对风险的反应有何不同？一个社区对危机的看法是什么，有助于或阻碍其准备、应对和恢复的能力？可以实施哪些政策来减轻这种事件的更广泛和长期影响？研究人员将开发统计和经济模型。与社区领导人和第一反应者的访谈将为评估应急反应系统提供投入。公众的反应将基于从纵向调查中收集的数据，调查使用了三种情景（地震、炸弹爆炸、炭疽释放），这些情景随着时间的推移而展开，与危机新闻报道一致。一个基于个体企业和消费者行为的全经济模型，通过风险认知调查和分析，将提供风险放大的直接和间接影响的估计。 第一反应者，卫生保健提供者，当地管理人员和教育工作者将直接受益于更好地了解他们的政策和做法的影响。这个项目的调查结果应该对国土安全官员特别有用。在风险评估，通信，社区规划，流行病学和风险感知等领域的研究人员将发现系统动力学模型作为自己的调查模拟工具是有用的。

This study seeks to model the dynamic complexity of a community's behavioral response to a terrorist strike and to estimate the economic impacts of this response. Emergency response systems, information and communication channels, and social support organizations are likely to interact with the particular characteristics of a terrorist event to both amplify and mute these impacts. What factors are most important to adequately forecast the broader impacts of a disaster and most particularly a terrorist strike? How can risk perception be incorporated into an economic model that predicts regional or national impacts? How does resilience (the ability of a community to maintain function when shocked) affect predicted responses to catastrophic events? How do these factors change and interact over time, and what are the important mechanisms that drive such change, especially system feedbacks and delays? How do responses to risk differ across gender, age, ethnicity, and income? What perspectives does a community bring to a crisis that helps or hinders its ability to prepare, respond and recover? What policies can be implemented that may mitigate the broader and long-term impacts of such an event? The investigators will develop statistical and economic models. Interviews with community leaders and first responders will provide input for assessing emergency response systems. Public response will be based on data gathered from a longitudinal survey using three scenarios (earthquake, bomb blast, anthrax release) that unfold over time consistent with crisis news reporting. An economy-wide model based on the behavior of individual businesses and consumers, informed by the risk perception surveys and analyses, will provide estimates of the direct and indirect impacts of risk amplification. First responders, health care providers, local administrators, and educators stand to directly benefit from a better understanding of the effects of their policies and practices. Findings from this project should prove especially useful to Homeland Security Officials. Researchers in areas such as risk assessment, communications, community planning, epidemiology, and risk perception will find the system dynamics model useful as a simulation tool for their own investigations.