COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Multispecies, Multiscale Investigations of Longterm Changes in Penguin and Seabird Populations on the Antarctic Peninsula

这个为期五年的项目旨在描述南极半岛上企鹅和海鸟种群的年代际变化，并确定推动这些长期变化的因素。提出了两个相互关联的研究活动：1。在整个南极半岛的117个地点持续、长期地监测和普查企鹅和海鸟的数量，并利用船只收集数据。2. 南极半岛不同地点五种企鹅和海鸟物种长期变化数据集的综合和定量分析。完成后，企鹅/海鸟数据库将纳入来自南极站点清单（ASI）、CCAMLR数据库、美国AMLR数据库、帕尔默站LTER数据库、英国和阿根廷研究人员的数据、南极研究科学委员会（SCAR）编制的历史普查数据，以及可能时其他私人持有的数据集。已经收集了关于温度变化、海冰覆盖、人类访问的季节时间和强度以及其他因素的额外数据，并将在空间明确的框架内与人口轨迹一起进行分析。该研究将包括分层统计分析，以表征几个关键的极地物种在多个空间尺度（地点、地区和半岛）的长期种群动态。分析还将集中在整个数据库的特定子集上，以对比游客对具有相似环境条件但旅游强度不同的成对殖民地、地点和地区的影响。更广泛的影响包括：(1)为一名博士后研究员和几名研究生提供研究培训和首次南极经历，他们都将更好地利用他们在空间和/或定量/理论生态学方面的专业知识来解决极地研究中的问题；(2)建立并分析南极半岛的大型、多季节的企鹅和海鸟时间序列数据库，该数据库将向公众开放；(3)有助于区分旅游业和气候变化对海鸟种群的影响。根据《南极条约环境议定书》，条约缔约国有责任进行定期和有效的监测，以评估人类活动的影响。该项目将独特地协助缔约方履行这一任务。

This five-year project seeks to characterize decadal scale changes in penguin and seabird populations on the Antarctic Peninsula, and to identify the factors driving these long-term changes. Two interconnected research activities are proposed: 1. Continued, long-term monitoring and censusing of penguin and seabird populations at 117 sites throughout the Antarctic Peninsula via opportunistic ship-based data collection. 2. Synthesis and quantitative analyses of datasets detailing long-term changes in five penguin and seabird species from diverse sites throughout the Antarctic Peninsula. When complete, the penguin/seabird database will incorporate data from the Antarctic Site Inventory (ASI), the CCAMLR database, the US AMLR database, the LTER database from Palmer Station, data from British and Argentine researchers, historic census data compiled by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), and, when possible, additional privately held datasets. Additional data for temperature change, sea ice coverage, the seasonal timing and intensity of human visitation, and other factors have been gathered and will be analyzed together with population trajectories within a spatially explicit framework. The research will include hierarchical statistical analyses to characterize the long-term population dynamics of several key polar species across multiple spatial scales (sites, regions, and the Peninsula). Analyses also will focus on specific subsets of the overall database to contrast visitor impacts on paired colonies, sites, and regions that share similar environmental conditions but differ in the intensity of tourism. The Broader Impacts include (1) research training and first-time Antarctic experiences for a postdoctoral researcher and several graduate students, all of whom will then be better positioned to bring their expertise in spatial and/or quantitative/theoretical ecology to bear on questions in polar research; (2) assembly and analysis of a large, multi-season database of penguin and seabird time series from the Antarctic Peninsula that will be publicly available, (3) assistance in distinguishing the impacts of tourism versus climate change on seabird populations. Under the Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty, Treaty Parties are charged with regular and effective monitoring to assess the impacts of human activities. This project will uniquely assist Parties in fulfilling this mandate.