CNH: Collaborative Research: Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change: A System Dynamics Analysis

在世界各地的城市中，暴露于过热是对人类健康和福祉的重大威胁。城市化通过“热岛”的形成与温度升高密切相关，“热岛”是指由于建筑物、混凝土和其他人类活动产生的辐射热而温度较高的地方。这种局部效应很可能随着未来全球变暖的趋势而加剧。先前的研究表明，城市贫民最容易受到极端高温的影响，但人们对城市气候变化与人类-自然耦合系统之间的相互作用知之甚少，这些系统在更精细的社区和家庭空间尺度上放大或减轻了不同社会经济和种族/民族群体的气候相关危害。考虑到城市增长和气候变化的全球趋势，该项目调查了亚利桑那州凤凰城大都市区与热相关的人类脆弱性变化的原因。凤凰城是这项研究的理想实验室，自然气候炎热、干旱。在过去的50年里，快速的城市化使夏季夜间平均温度提高了5摄氏度。该研究将解释复杂城市热“风险景观”的特征，评估不同社区人们对热相关健康危害的脆弱性，并确定城市内脆弱性变化的原因。生态、气象、社会学和医疗数据将用于建立一个综合的气候变化脆弱性系统动力学模型，该模型将纳入来自人类适应的大量反馈机制。研究人员将使用该模型来检验关于人类对环境的操纵与诱发的气候反应之间复杂相互作用的假设，探索邻里和区域动态之间的关系，并预测未来可能的情景。研究结果将用于设计可替代的社区景观和社区应对机制，以减少脆弱性，并设计有关气候和健康的教学和学习方案。本研究中使用的创新方法技术是开发精细尺度的地表能量平衡模型，以便在空间和时间尺度上整合和扩展气候研究；将机载和卫星遥感数据与嵌套在最先进的全球气候模式输出中的气象模式相结合；进行热风险景观和热相关疾病的空间分析；低收入和少数族裔社区应对策略的社区参与性研究。在快速城市化和变暖的世界中，应对可持续发展的挑战将取决于人类是否能够控制或适应不断上升的城市温度。该项目将确定高风险环境的社区和人口标记，决策者可以利用这些标记开发空间知情的预警系统和热疾病预防方案。对影响特定地点和人口亚群的未来热相关脆弱性分布和人类反应的模型预估对于若干大洲的城市很重要，因为热岛扩大、温度升高以及对健康的相关不利影响正在全球范围内发生。模型结果将在可视化环境中显示，这将允许利益相关者检查未来可选择的脆弱性情景；这将使社区能够获得知识并促进更好的决策。将为低收入和少数民族人口设计教育活动，包括制作一期关于“人与气候”的儿童杂志，该杂志将分发给数千个家庭。当地居民、大学生和项目调查人员将参与合作社区参与研究，以促进凤凰城市中心社区的热危害缓解。信息和材料将与许多城市的城市规划者和卫生机构共享。

Exposure to excessive heat is a significant threat to human health and well-being in cities around the world. Urbanization is strongly linked to increasing temperatures through the formation of "heat islands" - places with higher temperatures due to radiant heat from buildings, concrete, and other human activities. Such local effects are likely to intensify with future trends in global warming. Previous studies have shown that the urban poor are most vulnerable to extreme heat, but little is known about the interplay between changing urban climates and the coupled human-natural systems that amplify or mitigate climate-related hazards for different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups at finer spatial scales of neighborhoods and households. Taking account of global trends in urban growth and climate change, this project investigates the causes of variation in heat-related human vulnerability within the metropolitan region of Phoenix, Arizona. An ideal laboratory for this research, Phoenix has a naturally hot, arid climate. Rapid urbanization has increased average summer nighttime temperature by five degrees Celsius during the past 50 years. The research will explain the character of complex urban heat "riskscapes", assess the vulnerability of people in different neighborhoods to heat-related health hazards, and identify the causes of variation of vulnerability within cities. Ecological, meteorological, sociological, and medical treatment data will be used to build an integrated system dynamics model of vulnerability to climate change that incorporates substantial feedback mechanisms from human adaptations. Researchers will use the model to test hypotheses about complex interactions between human manipulation of the environment and induced climate response, to explore relationships between neighborhood and regional dynamics, and to forecast alternative future scenarios. The results will be used to devise alternative neighborhood landscapes and community coping mechanisms that can reduce vulnerability, and to design programs for teaching and learning about climate and health. Innovative methodological techniques used in this study are developing fine-scale, surface energy balance models for integrating and extending climate research over spatial and temporal scales; combining airborne and satellite remotely sensed data with a meteorological model nested in state-of-the-art global climate model output; conducting spatial analyses of heat riskscapes and heat-related illnesses; and community-participatory research on coping strategies in low-income and minority neighborhoods.Meeting the challenges of sustainability in a rapidly urbanizing and warming world will depend on decisions that allow humans to control or adapt to rising urban temperatures. This project will identify community and demographic markers of high-risk environments that decision-makers can use to develop spatially informed early warning systems and heat-illness prevention programs. Model projections for the distribution of future heat-related vulnerabilities and human responses that impact particular places and population subgroups are important for cities on several continents because enlarging heat islands, higher temperatures, and associated adverse impacts on health are occurring globally. Model results will be displayed in a visualization environment that will allow stakeholders to examine alternative future vulnerability scenarios; this will make knowledge accessible to the community and promote better decision-making. Educational activities will be designed for low-income and minority populations, including the production of a children's magazine issue on "people and climate" that will reach thousands of households. Local residents, university students, and project investigators will engage in collaborative community-participation research to promote heat-hazard mitigation in inner-city Phoenix neighborhoods. Information and materials will be shared with city planners and health agencies in many cities.