CNH: Collaborative Research: Integrated Dynamic Modeling of Ecosystem Services, Incentive-Based Policies, Land-Use Decisions, and Ecological Outcomes
CNH:协作研究:生态系统服务、激励政策、土地利用决策和生态成果的综合动态建模
基本信息
- 批准号:0816303
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 3万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2008
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2008-10-01 至 2012-03-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Over the past century, rapid growth of human population and the human economy has transformed landscapes around the world. These transformations have reduced and fragmented natural habitat, resulting in loss of biodiversity and many ecosystem services. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while meeting the needs of human society for food, fiber, fuel, and other essentials requires integrated assessment of the biological and economic consequences of land use and land management. This interdisciplinary research project will develop and apply an integrated dynamic landscape-modeling approach to predict and compare how alternative policy incentives and market forces affect land-use decisions; how resulting land-use changes affect species conservation, carbon storage, and the value of commodity production; and how this will affect future land-use decisions. The investigators will approach these questions by developing statistical models based on observed landowner behavior in order to predict likely land-use changes as a function of current land-use conditions, public policy, and market opportunities. Land-use changes have consequences for species conservation, ecosystem services, and economic returns. Land-use patterns shaped by these decisions will serve as input into models that predict the status of species, the flow of ecosystem services, and the value of commodity production from the landscape. Current land-use decisions and the resulting set of consequences will set the stage for future conditions that shape future policies and market opportunities, which, in turn, will affect future land-use changes. This integrated approach will be used to analyze the likely effect of alternative policies on land-use change dynamics, the consequent trajectory for species conservation, ecosystem services, and economic activities on the landscape. The integrated dynamic landscape modeling approach will be applied to landscapes at several geographic scales, from the 48 contiguous states to regional analysis applied to the Willamette Basin in Oregon and the Northern Lakes Region in Wisconsin. Two questions will be addressed by using different scales of analysis within the same modeling approach: (1) How much difference does inclusion of increased detail and spatial resolution make to the analysis and results?, and (2) Can analyses be nested in the sense that one can use the broad-scale analysis to highlight areas and species of concern, at which point more detailed analysis can be undertaken using finer scale analysis?Conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services necessary for human welfare in the long-run in the midst of a growing human economy with pressing current needs requires careful planning based on an understanding of the full set of consequences of human choices and actions. This project will integrate economic and ecological research into a coherent framework to predict landscape dynamics and the effects of these dynamics on biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, and economic production. The integrated landscape model developed in this project will provide tools and insights that can be used to improve decision making by a broad range of stakeholders. By facilitating careful thinking about the pattern, extent, and intensity of human activities across the landscape through time, this project may help landowners and policy makers to achieve important species conservation and ecosystem service objectives while also generating high economic returns over the long term. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.
在过去的一个世纪里,人口和人类经济的快速增长改变了世界各地的景观。这些变化使自然栖息地减少和破碎,导致生物多样性和许多生态系统服务丧失。维持生物多样性和生态系统服务,同时满足人类社会对食物、纤维、燃料和其他必需品的需求,需要对土地利用和土地管理的生物和经济后果进行综合评估。这一跨学科研究项目将开发和应用一种综合动态景观建模方法,以预测和比较不同的政策激励和市场力量如何影响土地使用决策;由此产生的土地利用变化如何影响物种保护、碳储存和商品生产价值;以及这将如何影响未来的土地使用决策。研究人员将根据观察到的土地所有者行为发展统计模型来解决这些问题,以便预测作为当前土地使用条件、公共政策和市场机会的函数的可能的土地使用变化。土地利用变化会对物种保护、生态系统服务和经济回报产生影响。由这些决定形成的土地利用模式将作为预测物种状况、生态系统服务流动和景观商品生产价值的模型的输入。目前的土地使用决定和由此产生的一系列后果将为未来的条件奠定基础,这些条件将影响未来的政策和市场机会,而这些政策和市场机会又将影响未来的土地使用变化。这一综合方法将用于分析备选政策对土地利用变化动态的可能影响、物种保护的后续轨迹、生态系统服务和对景观的经济活动。综合动态景观建模方法将应用于几个地理尺度上的景观,从48个相邻的州到俄勒冈州威拉米特盆地和威斯康星州北部湖泊地区的区域分析。在相同的建模方法中使用不同的分析尺度将解决两个问题:(1)包含增加的细节和空间分辨率对分析和结果有多大影响?(2)分析是否可以在某种意义上嵌套,即人们可以使用大尺度分析来突出关注的领域和物种,在这一点上可以使用更精细的尺度分析进行更详细的分析?在不断增长的人类经济和紧迫的当前需求中,保护生物多样性和维持长期人类福利所必需的生态系统服务,需要在了解人类选择和行动的全部后果的基础上进行仔细的规划。该项目将把经济和生态研究整合到一个连贯的框架中,以预测景观动态及其对生物多样性保护、生态系统服务和经济生产的影响。本项目开发的综合景观模型将提供工具和见解,可用于改善广泛利益相关者的决策。通过促进对景观中人类活动的模式、程度和强度的仔细思考,该项目可以帮助土地所有者和政策制定者实现重要的物种保护和生态系统服务目标,同时也能产生长期的高经济回报。本项目由美国国家科学基金会自然与人类系统耦合动力学(CNH)项目资助。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Peter Kareiva其他文献
Evidence of Causality between Economic Growth and Vegetation Dynamics and Implications for Sustainability Policy in Chinese Cities
经济增长与植被动态之间因果关系的证据及其对中国城市可持续发展政策的影响
- DOI:
10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119550 - 发表时间:
2020-04 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:11.1
- 作者:
Zhichao He;Lishan Xiao;Qinghai Guo;Yong Liu;Qizheng Mao;Peter Kareiva - 通讯作者:
Peter Kareiva
Chapter 4 State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services Coordinating Lead
第 4 章 模拟生态系统服务未来变化的最新技术协调领导
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2006 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Peter Kareiva;J. Agard;J. Alder;E. Bennett;C. Butler;S. Carpenter;W. Cheung;G. Cumming;R. DeFries;Bert J. M. de Vries;R. Dickinson;A. Dobson;J. Foley;J. Geoghegan;B. Holland;P. Kabat;J. Keymer;A. Kleidon;D. Lodge;S. Manson;J. Mcglade;H. Mooney;A. Parma;M. Pascual;H. Pereira;M. Rosegrant;C. Ringler;O. Sala;B. L. Turner Ii;D. V. van Vuuren;D. Wall;P. Wilkinson;V. Wolters;R. Reid;M. Scheffer;Antonio Alonso - 通讯作者:
Antonio Alonso
When one whale matters
当一头鲸鱼至关重要时
- DOI:
10.1038/35107167 - 发表时间:
2001-11-29 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:48.500
- 作者:
Peter Kareiva - 通讯作者:
Peter Kareiva
Predicting and producing chaos
预测和产生混沌
- DOI:
10.1038/375189a0 - 发表时间:
1995-05-18 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:48.500
- 作者:
Peter Kareiva - 通讯作者:
Peter Kareiva
Models to examine containment and spread of genetically engineered microbes
检查基因工程微生物的遏制和传播的模型
- DOI:
10.1046/j.1365-294x.1996.00228.x - 发表时间:
1996 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Mark A. Lewis;G. Schmitz;Peter Kareiva;J. Trevors - 通讯作者:
J. Trevors
Peter Kareiva的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Peter Kareiva', 18)}}的其他基金
Collaborative Research: Developing a Predictive Approach for Relating Landscape Attributes to Carnivore Distributions: A Case Study in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
合作研究:开发一种将景观属性与食肉动物分布联系起来的预测方法:大黄石生态系统的案例研究
- 批准号:
9622789 - 财政年份:1996
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Dissertation Research: Omnivory in a Terrestrial Arthropod Assemblage: The Consequences for Stability
论文研究:陆生节肢动物群落中的杂食性:稳定性的后果
- 批准号:
9411856 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Dissertation Research: Case Study of Effectiveness of Habitat Corridors
论文研究:栖息地走廊有效性案例研究
- 批准号:
9410874 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Dissertation Research: The Dynamics of Disease Spread by Ectoparasites
论文研究:外寄生虫疾病传播的动力学
- 批准号:
9321590 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
CRB: Exploring the Significance of Model Structure in Viability and Harvesting Analyses
CRB:探索模型结构在活力和收获分析中的意义
- 批准号:
9402314 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Dissertation Research: The Influence of Landscape Heterogeneity on Insect Population Dynamics
论文研究:景观异质性对昆虫种群动态的影响
- 批准号:
9410872 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Foraging Behavior and the Dispersion of Pelagic Birds
远洋鸟类的觅食行为和扩散
- 批准号:
9220128 - 财政年份:1993
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
The Role of Evolutionary, Population and Community Responsesin Analysis of Global Environmental Change: A Workshop Proposal; Friday Harbor, Washington; September 1991
进化、人口和社区反应在全球环境变化分析中的作用:研讨会提案;
- 批准号:
9113069 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Mathematical Models of Foraging Seabirds
海鸟觅食的数学模型
- 批准号:
8918130 - 财政年份:1990
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Dissertation Research: The Importance of Local Density and Relative Frequency for Plant Population Dynamics
论文研究:局部密度和相对频率对植物种群动态的重要性
- 批准号:
8802795 - 财政年份:1988
- 资助金额:
$ 3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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