Collaborative Research: Estimating Compensated Discount Functions

本研究利用经济实验对人们如何在动态情况下做出经济决策的基本理论进行实证检验。关于跨期选择的现有实验并没有提供支持或反对这些理论的确凿证据，因为它们没有控制受试者可能期望未来财务状况发生变化这一事实。研究人员进行了一系列旨在解决这个问题的实验。在他们的实验中，他们要求受试者根据实际收入在过期的奖品之间做出选择。这些奖金要么是给受试者的钱，要么是给受试者选择的慈善机构的捐款。这些实验是与冰岛国税局和雷克雅未克大学的研究人员合作在冰岛进行的。冰岛是独一无二的，因为根据冰岛法律，个人所得税申报表是公开信息，因此调查人员将能够确定每个受试者未来几年的实际收入。这项研究将解决经济学中与公共政策直接相关的争论。研究人员一直担心，许多人在动态情况下无法做出一致的选择。如果是这样的话，那么社会可能会因为公共政策而变得更好，这些政策会限制个人对退休储蓄、不健康行为和其他商品的选择，在这些商品中，个人可能会选择今天的快乐，而不顾未来的巨大成本。研究结果将告诉我们，不一致的选择是否真的是一种普遍现象。

This research uses economic experiments to empirically test fundamental theories about how people make economic decisions in dynamic situations. Existing experiments on intertemporal choice do not provide conclusive evidence for or against these theories, because they do not control for the fact that subjects might expect changes in their future financial situation. The investigators conduct a series of experiments designed to address this problem. In their experiments, they ask subjects to decide between dated prizes that are contingent on the subject's real income. The prizes are either a money payment to the subject or a contribution to a charity chosen by the subject. The experiments are conducted in Iceland in collaboration with researchers from the Internal Revenue Services of Iceland and the University of Reykjavik. Iceland is unique because under Icelandic law personal income tax returns are public information, so the investigators will be able to determine each subjects actual earned income in future years. This research will resolve a debate in economics that is directly relevant for public policy. Researchers have been concerned that many people do not make consistent choices in dynamic situations. If this is the case, then society may be better off with public policies that constrain individual choices about retirement savings, unhealthy behaviors, and other goods where an individual may choose pleasure today despite large costs in the future. The results will tell us if inconsistent choices are truly a widespread phenomenon.